An astonishing record – of complete failure

In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the…

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Only 8 left at this price

Your Trading Sucks! WELL, MAYBE NOT completely. But if you feel like there is something holding you back in the markets, that something may be you! There isn’t a profitable trader who hasn’t struggled with their own mindset. Click here to see who Louise Bedford has teamed up with to bring you the solutions you’re…

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The Washington Ballet’s hardest dance moves

Many many years ago when I was heavily involved in the martial arts (think two training sessions a day punctuated by afternoon naps in the uni library) I used to go out with a girl who was at the Victoria Collage of the Arts as a dance student. Occasionally I would go and stretch with…

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Barclays Manipulated Gold as Soon as It Stopped Manipulating Libor

And still no one is in prison…. If you were writing a paranoidfantasyof gold price manipulation you’d be hard pressed to come up with something more on the nose than the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s order against Barclays. It has everything; it is the benchmark of manipulation by which all future manipulation will be measured. Well, this…

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Vix Again

I came across this chart over the weekend. It looks at the volatility of stock, bond and currencies markets. The article that accompanies it falls into a trap I have commented on before namely, that volatility and changes in volatility are predictive. My view is that they are post-dictive – that is they react after…

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The Physics Of Wall Street

I have just finished wading through The Physics of Wall Street by James Owen Weatherall which tracks the impact of quantitative traders on both finance at large and Wall street in particular. As the title suggests it concentrates most on physicists who have made the leap into finance and with them have brought their impressive…

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When novice traders enter the world of trading they are bombarded by all sorts of rubbish about what to do and how to do it. Unfortunately, very little of this material covers what is actually important and none of it seems to mention the words courage and patience. I have spoken about the notion of…

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