LATEST BLOGS

Intuitive Thinking

The marvels and the flaws that I’ll be talking about are the marvels and the flaws of intuitive thinking. It’s a topic I’ve been thinking about for a long time, a little over 40 years. I wanted to show you a picture of my collaborator in this early work. What I’ll be trying to do…

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Alpha Or Beta

WSJ:One evening a week, a group of CEOs meets in a Manhattan psychiatrist’s office and engages in an ancient ritual. Ostensibly, it is a support group. Inevitably, it becomes a battle for dominance.”Whenever you put alpha males together, the most aggressive will overpower the others,” says T. Byram Karasu, the veteran psychiatrist who has run…

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The Political Impasse in Europe Explained With Lego

The toreador in a floppy hat, and the F1 driver with his helmet, represent Spain, Italy and the rest of the Euro Periphery. The three men with helmets, shields, and medieval weaponry represent the CDU, CSU and FDP parties in Germany. The blue-and-white sailor boy is Finland. Obvs. The woman with an oversized carrot and her friend in…

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The Political Impasse in Europe Explained With Lego

The toreador in a floppy hat, and the F1 driver with his helmet, represent Spain, Italy and the rest of the Euro Periphery. The three men with helmets, shields, and medieval weaponry represent the CDU, CSU and FDP parties in Germany. The blue-and-white sailor boy is Finland. Obvs. The woman with an oversized carrot and her friend in…

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USD Index

This is an interesting little chart. US indices took a bit of a smack overnight but their was not the flight into gold we have seen in the past few weeks – the USD was quite strong last night. The rule remains the same – trade the breakout.

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What If Sir Isaac Newton Had Been A Trendfollower?

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Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility and drawdowns they experienced. We then examine a simple trendfollowing approach investors could…

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There Are No Atheists In Foxholes

Several of out mentorees recently took part in the 2011 Investment Trends survey of Trading Behaviour. Buried in the usual stats about numbers of traders and their expectations was the little gem below. This chart looks at the inputs that traders use for their decision making. The interesting point is that traders are using less…

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There Are No Atheists In Foxholes

Several of out mentorees recently took part in the 2011 Investment Trends survey of Trading Behaviour. Buried in the usual stats about numbers of traders and their expectations was the little gem below.This chart looks at the inputs that traders use for their decision making. The interesting point is that traders are using less true…

Read more

What If Sir Isaac Newton Had Been A Trendfollower?

Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility and drawdowns they experienced. We then examine a simple trendfollowing approach investors could…

Read more

USD Index

This is an interesting little chart. US indices took a bit of a smack overnight but their was not the flight into gold we have seen in the past few weeks – the USD was quite strong last night. The rule remains the same – trade the breakout.

Read more

Commodities

The following dropped into my inbox this morning – it shows the long term performance of the main DJ-UBS commodity indices. It makes a compelling case for the inclusion of commodities into any portfolio. The interesting thing about these indices is that they trade as equities – as such they give investors easy access to…

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Once Upon A Time

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I often ponder the ability of society to deal with the challenges that it faces, everything from alienation of the individual to degradation of the environment gets a look in. My general conclusion is a depressing one, to put it succintly we are screwed – the reason for this conclusion is simple….IKEA. That’s right a…

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Once Upon A Time

I often ponder the ability of society to deal with the challenges that it faces, everything from alienation of the individual to degradation of the environment gets a look in. My general conclusion is a depressing one, to put it succintly we are screwed – the reason for this conclusion is simple….IKEA. That’s right a…

Read more

Commodities

The following dropped into my inbox this morning – it shows the long term performance of the main DJ-UBS commodity indices. It makes a compelling case for the inclusion of commodities into any portfolio.The interesting thing about these indices is that they trade as equities – as such they give investors easy access to commodity…

Read more

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