There Is Always A Cost

So I am sitting here in my local cafe pondering the wisdom of my first serious pool session after a surgery induced hiatus, the two words that spring instantly to mind are f#$cken and horrible. There is always a cost to everything and it is something we tend to ignore – it applies from the…

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I Love Survivor Bias

There are a few things that always catch novice market commentators out – little things such as volatility, narrative fallacies and one of my all-time favourites – survivor bias. The chart below is lifted from an article titled – These are the 20 best-performing stocks of the past decade, and some of them will surprise…

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Why Your Brain Needs Exercise

Another reason to get your arse off the couch. In the 1990s researchers announced a series of discoveries that would upend a bedrock tenet of neuroscience. For decades the mature brain was understood to be incapable of growing new neurons. Once an individual reached adulthood, the thinking went, the brain began losing neurons rather than…

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Whats a Dividend Worth?

One of the things that is often overlooked in trading is the role that dividends play in wealth creation. I have posted before about the role of DRP schemes in bulking up returns over the long term and since it is a blisteringly hot day in Melbourne (actually too friggen hot to get in the…

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Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?

Quick answer … No To answer this question, we develop new testing methods for identifying superior forecasting skills in settings with arbitrarily many forecasters, outcome variables, and time periods. Our methods allow us to address if any economists had superior forecasting skills for any variables or at any point in time while carefully controlling for…

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There Is No Magic

Humans are drawn to magical thinking for a variety of reasons, in part, it gives order to where there is chaos and we are very poor at sitting with chaos. It also separates us from others so our belief in our form of magic is a form of tribalism – we have access to an…

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Jim Simons: The man who solved the market

David Bailey does a good job of summarising Simons remarkable career. Simons’ background hardly suggested that he would one day lead one of the most successful, if not the most successful, quantitative hedge fund operation in the world. Born in 1938 to a Jewish family that operated a small shoe factory, Simons aspired very early…

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