How To Avoid Toxic People

The DSM-5 says that roughly 15% of people meet the criteria for a personality disorder. And most of them are never diagnosed. Now you’re not a psychiatrist and neither am I, so we shouldn’t run around diagnosing people… But we can learn enough to recognize if someone is a “high-conflict person”, reasonably give a diagnosis of “no good for…

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Hazard Versus Risk

As the year draws to a  close on a down note my inbox is full of wonderful end of the year offers promising me that they can save me from the next crash, which is very kind of them. These offers are a mix of divine prediction and the packaging and selling of common tools…

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Some Things To Read Whilst We Stuff Our Gobs

Out-running ‘bad’ diets: beyond weight loss there is clear evidence of the benefits of physical activity Of course there is evidence of the benefits of physical activity but your chances of out running a bad diet are practically zero because to do so you would need to exercise at this intensity for much longer than this…

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Sunspot Cycle and Stock Market Returns

One of the things that is disappointing about technical analysis is its constant default towards superstition and nonsense. This silliness drags the entire profession down and when technicians take umbrage at the way they are viewed they only have themselves to blame. A reader asked whether Charles Nenner, self-described as “the talk of Wall Street since…

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My Last Day As A Surgeon

In May of 2013, the Stanford University neurosurgical resident Paul Kalanithi was diagnosed with Stage IV metastatic lung cancer. He was thirty-six years old. In his two remaining years—he died in March of 2015—he continued his medical training, became the father to a baby girl, and wrote beautifully about his experience facing mortality as a doctor and a patient.…

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Seneca on The Shortness of Time

……It is not that we have a short space of time, but that we waste much of it. Life is long enough, and it has been given in sufficiently generous measure to allow the accomplishment of the very greatest things if the whole of it is well invested. But when it is squandered in luxury and carelessness, when it…

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Fear Not

………..Investors have to face fear every day, although more so on some days than others (nobody complains about volatility to the upside), and don’t often face it very effectively. To quote Jason Zweig paraphrasing Mike Tyson, “investors always have a plan until the market punches them in the face.” Real fear comes with names, faces, and a story.…

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At Least He Is Not Lonely

Yesterday I wrote about Thomas Lee who has continually made a serious of outrageous and incorrect predictions about BTC but he is not alone. Whilst doing a bit more research I came across this list of others who have made similarly stupid pronouncements in public. Souce – Nick Maggiulli

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I Love These

Back in May, Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors was predicting a rally to $25,000 by the end of the year. And despite things not playing quite in his favor — the cryptocurrency is currently trading below $3,400 — he’s sticking to his guns. More here – Bloomberg   I do love it…

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Thats Not How It Works

As the daily predictions of the coming housing apocalypse grow increasingly strident there is some natural push back from the sell side of the industry who have adopted an equal but opposite position. As I said before I do have some sympathy from property investors because the price discovery in their markets is very poor…

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Time Flies When You Are Having Fun

The $A was floated 35 years ago. I remember vividly all the predictions of doom and gloom that were apparently going to be visited upon us Although these predictions did largely come from conservatives who were still annoyed that we had moved to a decimal system and dropped the pound, Since then it has been…

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