Fun With Coin Tossing

It may sound weird but I really like playing with software that simulates distributions – it probably comes from when I had a semester free at Uni and simply took subjects that looked interesting. One of the ones I dropped into was Mathematical Ecology which is largely the mathematics of  natural distributions. I found it…

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How To Upset People

You would have thought that someone like me would have already explored all the ways in which you can upset people but over the past few days I have managed to discover two more. Tell people they are living the life they have created. This is simply a variation on the old theme of you…

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How to Make a Big Decision

In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life. The decision he was wrestling with was not related to scientific questions about the origins of species. It was a different kind of decision — existential as well, but of a more personal nature:…

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The Shipping Forecast

I have always been fascinated by this….. Four times every day, on radios all across the United Kingdom, a BBC announcer begins reading from a seemingly indecipherable script. “And now the Shipping Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency,” says the voice over the wire. “Viking, North Utsire;…

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The Joy Of Irrelevant Self Importance

For more than a quarter century, Wall Street analyst Mike Mayo has danced to the steady beat of corporate America. His work habits, his family events, his social life, even his workouts and vacations — all have been dictated by the seemingly immutable cycle of quarterly earnings reports. Four times a year, forget about everything…

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Things That Get Lost In The Mix

Unfortunately the archetypal image of a trader is of an individual who is constantly on the move. In the old days the appearance of a trader would include the endlessly repetitive scenes of someone yelling down the phone to their broker issuing a constant stream of instructions. Nowadays the image might be of someone using…

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Catch Yourself

THERE’S AN OLD adage – “Let me fall if I must fall. The one I become will catch me”. When we’re going through the swamp, we forget we can grow because of it. After a traumatic event, half of all people report at least one positive change (compared with 15% who develop Post Traumatic Stress…

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I LOVE LISTENING to Chris Tate talk with our traders. A crazy blend of harsh life advice, and raw trading tips. Here are some quotes I feel will set you up beautifully for the month: “You won’t have a life-changing trade based on a 5-minute chart. If you’re only trading short-term, you’re trading for cashflow,…

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It’s Hard to Adult

“BUT I’M TIRED.” Yeah… I get it. It’s hard to ‘adult’. But as an excuse for NOT learning about the markets, it’s piss poor. You are the sum total of all the decisions you’ve made in the past. What you see in your life right now is the result. It’s ‘excuses’ or ‘results’. There is…

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It’s Your Retirement

IF THERE’S ONE THING that the banking Royal Commission into Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry has shown us, it’s that we have to take more control. We can’t trust the big corporations to have our best interests at heart. Heck… the recent shenanigans show that we can’t really trust they won’t break into our…

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Sometimes It’s Best to Come Second?

Abstract This paper compares mortality between Gold and Silver medalists in Olympic Track and Field to study how achievement influences health. Contrary to conventional wisdom, winners die over one year earlier than losers. I find strong evidence of differences in earnings and occupational choices as a mechanism. Losers pursued higher-paying occupations than winners according to…

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Even More Fun With ETFs and Indices

What prompted me to revisit this topic this is that once again my inbox is being bombarded with stuff about the magic of ETFs – it seems the gloss has completely gone from cryptos so we are back to old standard. The problem with most of these genius ideas is that they lack depth –…

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Markets Dont Give A Shit

I am in the process of finishing up my presentation of the IFTA conference in Kuala Lumpur in October. My topic is a bit of an exploration of volatility and how it is incredibly poorly understood by most. Whilst in the throws of banging together charts I generated the one below of the S&P/ASX 200…

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Most of us are wrong about how the world has changed

The opinion research organization Ipsos MORI conducted a detailed survey of 26,489 people across 28 countries that gives us an answer.1 Most people think global poverty is rising when in fact the opposite is happening The first chart shows how the surveyed people answered the following question: “In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world…

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