Physics Envy and Economic Theor

From the videos description – Economists were seduced by physics because it made their claims seem more scientific. Their belief was in the concept of equilibrium, in which it would be impossible to profit from trading around a circle of goods or a circle of currencies without actually producing anything. Of course, that is possible,…

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Returns And Relative Strength

I came across this chart from Bespoke. When I saw this file in its orignal context it seemed to imply that a higher relative strength equalled a higher return and that there was a sharp distinction between the returns possible as a function of the size of a given instrument. I wasn’t able to recreate…

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I Imagined We Are Supposed To Be Surprised

There are two reasons not to listen to anything the finance media says. The first is that they have no idea what they are talking about (see earlier piece on gold predictions) The second reason can be found below. Charles Payne, a contributor and frequent guest host for Fox News and Fox Business, was compensated…

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The 8 Worst Gold Price Predictions We’ve Ever Heard

Business Insider…….While gold prices were on their ascent, we heard some bullish calls from high-profile Wall Streeters that would make dotcom era equity analysts blush. For whatever reason, gold ultra-bulls argued that the precious metal would be worth multiples of where it is today.  We’ve heard targets from $5,000 to $46,000.

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With nothing to do on a cold Melbourne morning other than freeze to death I thought I would dust off this old spreadsheet on correlations.  These are the ASX20 plus the All Ords and the S&P500. Correlations less than 1 are in red and those greater than 0.6 are in blue. Make of it what…

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Weekend Reading

The Man Who Escaped Microsoft and Took a Whole Company With Him -Wired Men Over 40 Should Think Twice Before Running Triathlons – Bloomberg Shocking new drug testing statistics in tennis revealed – Yahoo The Problem With Psychiatry, the ‘DSM,’ and the Way We Study Mental Illness – Pacific Standard The Last Mystery of the…

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Choice Of Market Matters

I was having breakfast with Scott L out systems tester extraordinaire the other day. Our chice of venue for such outings is a cafe in Brighton. Not because it is half way between our two abodes but rather that it boast a boat ramp. And as everyone knows a boat ramp is the best free…

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Predicting The Next Crash

As a personal dlsclaimer I should point out that Sornett has been making predictions of crashes for over a decade and I dont believe he has gotten one correct. His last prediction of note was that the S&P500 would crash to 700 points in 2004, if memory serves me correctly that didnt happen. In their…

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Peak HFT

From Bloomberg – Even as the money has dried up and HFT’s presence has declined, the regulators are arriving in force. In January, Gregg Berman, a Princeton-trained physicist who’s worked at the Securities and Exchange Commission since 2009, was promoted to lead the SEC’s newly created Office of Analytics and Research. His primary task is to…

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