“You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” This quote, popularised by James Clear in Atomic Habits, speaks volumes to the world of mechanical trading. It captures a fundamental truth: success in trading doesn’t come from lofty aspirations or emotional conviction—it comes from the structure,…
Recently, I came across a post in my social media thread where someone was loudly proclaiming that crude was going to $55.00. So I thought I’d better check that out, because, as we know, prediction is difficult, particularly about the future. The chart below is a weekly chart of crude because I always start with…
In the previous post, I mentioned the notion of recency bias – that is, to assume that the only possible outcomes on offer are those you have experienced. Sadly, for your ego, the market existed long before you decided to take an interest, and it will continue long after you’ve lost interest. To bring the…
Unfortunately, the human brain is not geared towards the world it has created. The software that runs our brains is effectively a Model T Ford trying to cope with being on an autobahn with an unlimited speed limit. As traders, we can both see and experience this every day. The current market turmoil has caused…
Let’s start with a little market reality. Markets go up and down – that is the simple reality of markets. However, the version of reality you get depends on who you are listening to. If you listen to anyone on the sell side of markets, such as brokers, financial planners, or fund managers, they will…
“It’s 10 pm, I’m going to bed,” is what I told the group of friends, teammates, and strangers who were gathered in our house for a get-together during college. It was a Friday night and I had a long run the next morning. More here – The Growth Equation
Last week, we saw Trump blink in his trade war against the rest of the world. The cause of that hesitation was not diplomacy, reason or even a modicum of common sense. It was a slap from the bond market, which caused an already fragile equity market to drop its bundle. Many try to explain…
Markets are more accessible than ever. With trading apps, live news feeds, and social media updates flashing 24/7, traders—especially beginners—are constantly exposed to the latest “hot” moves and viral stock stories. In this high-speed, high-noise environment, one psychological force dominates: the Fear of Missing Out, or FOMO. FOMO is the anxiety or urgency a trader…
Self-sabotage is a psychological phenomenon in which individuals unconsciously hinder their own success. This behaviour is surprisingly prevalent in high-performance domains—athletics, entrepreneurship, the arts, and particularly trading. Despite possessing the necessary skills, knowledge, and resources, high performers often find themselves making decisions that are counterproductive, irrational, or destructive. In trading, where mental clarity, discipline, and…
Risk-taking is the lifeblood of trading. Every entry is a calculated exposure to uncertainty, and every decision is an assertion of probability over certainty. However, how traders approach risk — whether with confidence, fear, or hesitation — is deeply influenced by their underlying mindset. This is where the abundance mindset becomes not just relevant but…
In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter reveals how understanding risk and probability can help us make smarter decisions in an unpredictable world. From medical choices to artificial intelligence, he shows how data can clarify the unknown, helping us distinguish real patterns from mere coincidences. Through storytelling and real-world examples—including historic miscalculations and surprising…
As headlines go, “Social Media is Bad” doesn’t raise many eyebrows these days. TikTok and its ilk are said to be harming mental health, stifling creativity, eroding privacy, fueling disinformation, undermining national security, and so on. These are all big issues worthy of careful debate. But there’s a narrower and more tangible risk that Sweat…
Fans of cinema will recognise the title of this post as coming from a speech by Marlon Brando in the 1954 classic On the Waterfront. The quote also applies to many traders who let opportunities slip through their fingers because of a lack of courage. Courage is rarely discussed in the context of trading, but…
This article is behind a paywall, but you can get the general gist from the opening two paragraphs. If the pay of local fund managers were based on ability, the vast majority would be delivering newspapers to make ends meet. China is considering slashing pay of fund managers who underperform their benchmarks as part of…
One of my favorite threads of research shows just how interconnected we humans are. Studies reveal that if you bear witness to someone else experiencing pain—whether it’s a someone close stubbing their toe, a person experiencing homelessness on a damp street corner, or a somber face in the waiting room of a hospital—you’re likely to…
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