LATEST BLOGS

Hermits and Cranks

How can we tell if someone is a scientific crank? Gardner offers this advice: (1) “First and most important of these traits is that cranks work in almost total isolation from their colleagues.” Cranks typically do not understand how the scientific process operates—that they need to try out their ideas on colleagues, attend conferences and…

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The Science Behind Sprinter Usain Bolt’s Speed

Sprinters who have taken on Usain Bolt in the 100-meter dash often describe a moment in the second half of the race when the world’s fastest-ever human just runs away from them. One minute they are shoulder-to-shoulder with Bolt, believing that this will be the nightthe legend will be toppled. The next they are staring…

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Language

Now that I have settled in following my trip to Sydney I have had a chance to unpack and to clear out my junk mail folder. My junk mail folder is used to collect any manner of financial dross and it is a veritable treasure trove of hyperbole, breathless overstatement with a slight dash of…

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Can it be rational to overweight very unlikely events?

Using tools gleaned from behavioral economics to help people make better decisions is all the rage these days. This work is built on the theory that behavioral biases – like the sunk cost fallacy, status quo bias, or the tendency to give outsize attention to very unlikely events – are cognitive mistakes that are holding…

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IPPON

Any regular reader of the blog will know that I am a history buff. I believe that there is nothing new under the sun; the mistakes of today are the mistakes of yesterday with a different cast. I am uncertain as to how it could be any other way due to the repeating fallibility of…

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Starting Dates

The post I did just now on luck got me thinking about the role of luck in trading – specifically the luck of your starting date. This ties in with a bit of playing around with annualised returns I have been doing in markets that have been rubbish. One of the issues with looking at…

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Luck

This is a photo of Jimmy Nicol sitting by himself at Essendon airport on June 15 1964. For those who are not up with their music history Nicol sat in for Ringo Starr for eight concerts whilst Starr was ill with tonsillitis. Apparently he played the drums as well as Starr – the only thing…

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Get Off Ya Bum

A new study of over 1 million people finds that doing at least one hour of physical activity per day, such as brisk walking or cycling for pleasure, may eliminate the increased risk of death associated with sitting for 8h a day. Physical inactivity is linked to an increased risk of heart disease, diabetes and…

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