Early Candidate For Ugliest Chart of 2022
If ever you find yourself in awe of hedge funds there are two things I recommend you do. Firstly read The Hedge Fund Mirage by Simon Lack Secondly, refer back to this chart.
Human Memory: How We Make, Remember, And Forget Memories
From the moment we are born, our brains are bombarded by an immense amount of information about ourselves and the world around us. So, how do we hold on to everything we’ve learned and experienced? Memories. More here – National Geographic
Most Important Chart Of 2022
Baring some other catastrophe the current uptick in interest rates in the US (and eventually here) will be the most important “economic “event” of the year with ramifications not so much for equities but definitely for real estate. Interest rates have been in a long-term drift downwards for three decades as shown in the chart…
Milk Futures
It’s not just the more widely traded “food” related commodities that have been on a tear. I have always regarded milk as a legacy contract leftover from days gone by but it has done extremely well over the past year.
Funny If True….
PS: I have a very vague recollection of a trader in the 1980’s being caught in a similar manner with copper.
Its A Bet Not A Prediction
One of the issues I have with technical analysis and its more die hard adherents is that they assume they are making a prediction when in fact they are making a bet. This might seem to be a mild quibble of a simple matter of definitions but the two words carry much different meanings both…
How Not To Measure Markets
Social media….the gift that just keeps on giving in terms of the idiocy it offers up to traders. It is hard to decide whether it is a wonderful entertainment value or whether it is profoundly depressing in terms of the idiocy that it generates. The latest piece of inanity comes from the notion of how…
What Are Your Investment Beliefs?
I am sure I have bored plenty of people in recent years by repeating the mantra ‘process over outcomes’. There is probably no more important frame or model to apply when considering how we make investment decisions. In an environment where skill is often overwhelmed by luck and randomness the more we focus on results…
How to Stop Procrastinating
Confession: I’ve spent most of my life as a chronic procrastinator. I’ve also spent most of my life justifying that chronic procrastination. “It’s just how I work,” I’d say to myself after yet another stress-inducing last-minute sprint to complete a project. The pressure of an imminent deadline was what I needed to thrive. Scientifically, I…
Psychos Buy Bitcoin
We conducted a survey to find out. In particular, we wanted to know about the relationship between the so-called “dark tetrad” personality traits and attitudes towards cryptocurrency. In psychology, the “dark tetrad” refers to a group of four personality traits. These are Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy (together known as the “dark triad”), plus sadism. They are…
History Shows War Shocks Have a Modest Impact on Equities
After Russia rolled tanks and troops into Ukraine, markets sold off—for half a day. S&P 500 futures tumbled overnight, but by 2:30 p.m. in New York on Feb. 24, the S&P 500 was higher than before military action began. While there’s been volatility, U.S. equities as of March 1 were still up since before the…
Extremely Bad Decisions
There are undoubtedly countless investors nursing losses because of a choice made in recent years to abandon value-oriented strategies to fully commit to the rapidly accelerating growth bandwagon. Although the brutal reversal in the more speculative end of the growth universe can be read as a salutary lesson on style and factor rotations, it is…
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