I tend to be fascinated by data – I am also a student of history and when those two things combine I can amuse myself for hours. The chart below is from The Economist and it looks at a series of social and economic measures that came about as a result of the First World War.…
I am just putting the final touches to a presentation I am giving at the AIA Conference on the Gold Coast next week and I have been looking in part at the inherent bias within recommendations by analysts. Fortunately, this topic is well covered in the literature and I have been able to pull together…
Following on from my post on the Dow following the events of last week comes this analysis by the WSJ on how investors react to bad news. I agree with the general sentiment however I think the 13.5% experienced during the Israeli invasion of Gaza owes more to the market being in the…
Sometimes its good to look at the participants in other asset classes just to get an idea that it is not only people involved in finance who are useless. I have to admit I find real estate fascinating in the ability of agents to be successful despite their absolute and total incompetence. For example I…
The quote in the title is attributed to Albert Einstein and I was reminded of it for two reasons. Firstly, I came across the following exchange last night – Thoreau to Emerson: “Simplify, simplify.” Emerson to Thoreau: “You didn’t need the second “simplify.” Secondly, our current crop of mentors are struggling through my part of…
I have been enjoying the 45th anniversary celebrations of the flight of Apollo 11. My favourite to date has been this piece by The Atlantic, simply because of the quality of the images. To view them in all their magnificence make certain you click the little 1280 px radio button above the first image.
In light of the appalling events of last week it is instructive to look at the markets reaction to such news and to see what can be learnt about the psychology of markets. In analysing what went on in the least two days of the week it is necessary to set aside ones emotions about…
Time to be a little bit geeky – if you don’t know who these people are GIYF. And for those who don’t get the cultural reference here is the somewhat forgettable song by Haddaway
Once upon a time I used to believe that trading was an information management profession but I have slowly begun to change my opinion. Trading has become a noise management profession – noise is everywhere in trading and its influence is becoming more pronounced as time marches on. When I first became interested in markets…
Yeah….no…..maybe….ah…apparently not…. We examine the relation between incentive fees and hedge fund performance. In an industry where information asymmetries (and the consequent risk of agency problems) are severe, the efficacy of such outcomes-based contracting to align investor and manager interests is of fundamental importance to investors. Consistent with theory, we find that the higher a hedge fund’s incentive…
One of the biggest problems people have when they come to trading is the notion of self responsibility, people are so used to abrogating responsibility for their own lives to someone else that they literally do not know how to get into the drivers seat. This poses all sorts of problems because trading as a…
To Kill a Mockingbird remains one of my favourite books and films. I will regularly ensconce myself on the coach when it comes on. There are many reasons to be grateful for “The Mockingbird Next Door,”Marja Mills’s wonderful memoir of Harper Lee and her sister, and being enticed to re-read “To Kill a Mockingbird” is just one of…
There is much talk around the google box that the current move in markets is a sign of an investment bubble. I am not so convinced – the moment markets actually go up people start screaming bubble followed by here comes the crash. Such cries are merely the emotional swings of hormonal market commentators. However,…
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