S&P 500 Gaps
Interesting to note the number of times the S&P 500 has a had a gap reversal out of a downtrend in recent times.
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An Interview With Robert J. Shiller on Behavioral Economics
Warburton: So what you’re saying is that traditional economics has focused on an ideally rational individual, asking, “What would such a person do if he or she behaved in their own best interests based on the information available?” But behavioral economics brings in the fact that we don’t always behave in our own best interests.…
Why You Should Never Trust Social Media
There was momentary alarm on Japanese social media overnight after a well-known day trader tweeted news of a press conference announcing the resignation of Kuroda. Some day traders jumped to the conclusion that Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, was suddenly poised to step down. More here – Bloomberg
Now This Is A Boom
Sales in Canada’s biggest city rose 12 percent to 9,768 transactions from the same month a year earlier, while average prices jumped 21 percent to C$762,975 ($569,852), according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. The average price of a detached home was C$1,034,077, up 26 percent on the year. New listings rose 0.9 percent to…
Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions
1. Intelligence increases the ability to fool yourself with elaborate stories about why something happened. Average people can often learn faster than the superintelligent, because the superintelligent try to cram the real world into the theories they’ve been taught, while average folks are better at accepting the real world at face value. Here’s the thing:…
How I feel About Trading Some Days
Spotted in the physics department of Ohio State University.
The Psychology and Neuroscience of Financial Decision Making
The Psychology and Neuroscience of Financial Decision Making from Trading Game Pty Ltd
What A Difference A Day Makes
I was going to post the chart below as candidate for the most boring chart of the year alongside the USD/CHF but a wee bit can happen in 24 hours. The S&P 500 has had no net effective gain since 06/2015 which does make it a long time between drinks for long equity traders. When I…
Venezuelans Give Up on Counting Piles of Cash and Start Weighing Them
I did not know this, although there are historical precedents such as Germany in the 1920’s. At a delicatessen counter in eastern Caracas, Humberto Gonzalez removes slices of salty white cheese from his scale and replaces them with a stack of bolivar notes handed over by his customer. The currency is so devalued and each…
Its Good To Be Number One
Whilst I was recently in Toronto I noted that there was a degree of hand wringing about the current state of the property market in Canada and the resultant increase in household debt that had accompanied this. Curious about where we stood I looked up the league table of household debt as a function of…
Starting Dates
When I was banging on about EFT’s last week I made the point in passing that when you are looking at trading systems that the start date is everything and it is the point at which most of the fudging of results occurs. As an example I took a hypothetical passive system and began to…
