How To Take A Casino For $20 Million
What You See
As part of a recent discussion in the Mentor Program we looked at the nature of returns and how they can be distributed in the real world which is very different to how you want them to be distributed in your head. For the conversation I posted the graph below which is a series of…
You Actually Know Less Than You Think You Do
I found this fascinating and it had me drawing bikes on a blank piece of paper. The central issue is that we actually know less about he world than we think we do. These errors abound in simple tasks and in our understanding of the way the world works. It is natural therefore that such…
Does Creativity Decline with Age?
This question has attracted scientific research for more than a century. In fact, the first empirical study of this issue was published in 1835. Thus, I can offer a confident answer: not quite! At least not if creativity is assessed by productivity or by making original and valuable contributions to fields such as science and…
Don Quitoxe is 400 Years Old
Melvyn Bragg and guests discuss Miguel de Cervantes’ 17th century novel, Don Quixote. Published four hundred years ago in Madrid, the book was an immediate success and recognised as one of the classic texts of Western Literature, revered by writers such as Sterne, Goethe, Flaubert, Dostoevsky, Kafka and Melville. Don Quixote tells the story of…
Ethics
This is a bit of a Sunday morning tea and toast ramble, so if you have something more important to do like catch up on Housewives of Melbourne aka Slappers of Bleak City or you are you are wondering what happened in the latest episode of My Kitchen Dickheads I suggest you pop off now. I…
I spotted this chart this morning – it looks at the percentage of Americans with direct investment in equities. There are a few things about this chart that caught my eye. The first was the obvious decline, Gallup attribute this to a shrinking number of middle class American being involved in the markets. This may…
Know This First: Risk Perception Is Always Irrational.
Our perceptions, of risk or anything else, are products of cognitive processes that operate outside our conscious control — running facts through the filters of our feelings and producing subjective judgments that disregard the evidence. The behavioral scientists Melissa Finucane and Paul Slovic call this the Affect Heuristic; it gives rise to what I call…
Emotions Are Not A Trading System
At our recent gathering in Perth we looked at quite a bit of the trader psychology that occurs around certain moves. LB has an exercise where she puts up a given chart with the sort of generic responses that traders generate at each phase of the move. The audience is then asked to critique what…
Thought Of The Day
I saw this pop up today. The tale of Ronald Wayne is somewhat legendary. He was one of Apples original founders but sold his original stake for $800 and later on accepted an additional $1500 to forfeit any future claims against the company. As the billboard states his stake today would be valued at around…
