I have always been acutely aware that financial success can often disappear with a single misstep. I have over the past three decades seen many people who have made a single error and never recovered. I have known high flying brokers who after the 1987 crash went to work in their local news agency and…
It may cost more than $100 million, but many social problems could be alleviated with the creative infusion of cash. Compensating organ donors could increase the supply of organs and save thousands of lives annually. Paying opium farmers in Afghanistan and Latin America to grow something else could bring an even larger dividend in averted…
In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we sit down with short seller Marc Cohodes. Marc manages his portfolio from San Francisco, and has had great success with high profile bear cases focused on frauds, fads, and failures in recent years. His investment industry experience dates to the early 1980s, and has helped him hone his…
I am not one for historical comparisons because they are largely specious and mostly irrelvant but this one gives a nice bit of history that I lived through so consider it a nostalgia piece. ……The Nikkei stock index rose more than 900% in the 15 years before it finally topped. It was a frenzy powered…
One of the best things about heading away for a few days is not necessarily the break from Melbourne’s winter but rather the enforced break from trading. Whilst technology now gives us the ability to trade from anywhere there is a stable internet connection I tend to switch off when on holidays and drop into cant…
I am somewhere over the Pacific reflecting upon my time in Fiji. I am not an easy traveller – I don’t move from country to country with the ease and grace that many do. Mine is not the liquid carefree transnational border hopping where people just set off for a new destination without a care…
Before I head off to Fiji for a week I was cleaning out an image archive I keep when I came across this chart of Poseidon from the 1960’s. Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Despite what people say nothing ever changes…..
The word ‘charlatan’ is supposedly derived from the Italian word ciarlare, which means ‘to babble.’ Some of the original charlatans were confidence men who would prey upon people’s misunderstandings about healthcare before modern medicine existed. There used to be traveling medicine shows where the salesperson would make promises of magic elixirs that would heal all wounds. It…
“First forget inspiration. Habit is more dependable. Habit will sustain you whether you’re inspired or not. Habit is persistence in practice.” — Octavia Butler More here – Farnham Street
I snipped this table from Business Insider – it shows the likelihood of various sorts of maladies befalling the average American. Apart from the appalling statistic for gun violence my guess is that it is roughly transferable to Australia. It highlights the profound disconnect between true risk as expressed as a number that is harsh…
Following on from using sentiment to try and predict the future Jon Boorman has updated his wonderful guru predictions chart. Source: Jon Boorman
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