LATEST BLOGS

Confirmation Bias And the Power of Disconfirming Evidence

Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias explains why two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. This cognitive bias is most pronounced in the case of ingrained, ideological, or emotionally charged views.…

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Buy and Hold – How Is That Working Out For You

Imagine we have a way back machine and we wander into your broker or financial planners office in 2007 and ask them to generate a portfolio for us. I can guarantee you that your portfolio will have at least two of the local big four banks in it. The argument for including them will include…

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How the Veil of Ignorance Helps Test Fairness

Few will have the greatness to bend history itself, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events. It is from numberless diverse acts of courage and belief that human history is shaped. Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or…

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I Love A Good Conspiracy Theory

One of the things that has always interested me in humans is the desire to partition the world into little segments that are easy to understand, my view has always been that most of these dichotomies are false and are simply a mechanism of delineating groups into good and bad. Of course, everyone who splits…

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Richard Feynman On Believing What Isn’t True

In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for…

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The Definition of a Trader

I came across the following definition of a trader the other day and it has been bouncing around the back of my mind ever since. Trader/ˈtreɪdə noun: a person who loves problem solving and the challenge of competing against others The first part I find some common ground with – there are some functional problems…

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The Worst Ever….Yeah Not Even Close

Sometimes you see comments that make you put your head on the side and develop a quizzical look, much like a labrador contemplating the origin of calculus debate….was it Leibniz or Newton? The comment that caused this was a throwaway line saying that this was the worst market depression we had ever seen, I immediately…

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Does It Add Anything?

Trading is a profession of uncertainty – the window into tomorrow is opaque as such our decisions are merely bets made on a series of potential outcomes. This uncertainty is essential since it brings the potential for profit, if there is no uncertainty then there is no chance of profit. Claims of no risk trades…

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