LATEST BLOGS

The 8 Worst Gold Price Predictions We’ve Ever Heard

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Business Insider…….While gold prices were on their ascent, we heard some bullish calls from high-profile Wall Streeters that would make dotcom era equity analysts blush. For whatever reason, gold ultra-bulls argued that the precious metal would be worth multiples of where it is today.  We’ve heard targets from $5,000 to $46,000.

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Correlations

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With nothing to do on a cold Melbourne morning other than freeze to death I thought I would dust off this old spreadsheet on correlations.  These are the ASX20 plus the All Ords and the S&P500. Correlations less than 1 are in red and those greater than 0.6 are in blue. Make of it what…

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Weekend Reading

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The Man Who Escaped Microsoft and Took a Whole Company With Him -Wired Men Over 40 Should Think Twice Before Running Triathlons – Bloomberg Shocking new drug testing statistics in tennis revealed – Yahoo The Problem With Psychiatry, the ‘DSM,’ and the Way We Study Mental Illness – Pacific Standard The Last Mystery of the…

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Choice Of Market Matters

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I was having breakfast with Scott L out systems tester extraordinaire the other day. Our chice of venue for such outings is a cafe in Brighton. Not because it is half way between our two abodes but rather that it boast a boat ramp. And as everyone knows a boat ramp is the best free…

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Predicting The Next Crash

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As a personal dlsclaimer I should point out that Sornett has been making predictions of crashes for over a decade and I dont believe he has gotten one correct. His last prediction of note was that the S&P500 would crash to 700 points in 2004, if memory serves me correctly that didnt happen. In their…

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Peak HFT

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From Bloomberg – Even as the money has dried up and HFT’s presence has declined, the regulators are arriving in force. In January, Gregg Berman, a Princeton-trained physicist who’s worked at the Securities and Exchange Commission since 2009, was promoted to lead the SEC’s newly created Office of Analytics and Research. His primary task is to…

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Mailbag Time

Every now and again we get an interesting email at blog central. Todays intrepid contributor writes – I have noticed that a daily and weekly ATR are different. Why is this, I find it confusing….

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The New Nikkei Bear Market?

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I am always intrigued as to the definitions of when a new bear market begins. Most pundits claim that when a market falls 20% then it is in the grip of the bear. I am not so sure. For example if you held a stock at $10 and it went to $8 would you consider…

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Kodak’s Problem Child

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I have written about Kodak before and its failure to adapt to the disruption caused by its own invention and this piece by Kenny Suleimanagich is a neat little synopsis of how it all went wrong. See also Adapt by Tim Harford.

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