LATEST BLOGS

Your Perfect Day

What would be your perfect day? How would you look, feel, and what would you be doing? Strangely, when I’ve asked this to civilians (people outside our close-knit trading community), they don’t even know the answer. But I’ll bet you, if you think about it, you’ll know what you perfect day looks like. You know…

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Should You Quit?

I was talking to my friend, Alan Furlong, on the phone the other day. He’s a loyal follower of the positive psychology movement. I asked him “Alan – what should someone do if they really don’t like their job?” Without hesitation, he said “Quit”. I have to admit, his answer freaked me out. But the…

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BHP

For those of you who hold BHP, my commiserations.Unfortunately, you have not seen much growth for almost a decade and have been underwater for the bulk of that time.   The trajectory of BHP is interesting because it points directly to the fact that we have not had a mining boom – we have had…

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Relative Performance

I thought it would be interesting to see how the domestic market has performed over various times frames relative to a grab bag of foreign markets. the charts below are in the following order – one year, six months, three months and one month. On the longer time frames we are rubbish but over the…

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On The Side Of The Optimist

An interesting interview with Marc Adreessen the inventor of Netscape and venture capitalist. He makes the following poiint – What did you do? I just went to college. I did my thing. I came out here in ’94, and Silicon Valley was in hibernation. In high school, I actually thought I was going to have…

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Never Lose Hope

Your feelings don’t just LAND on you. You generate them. And if you generate sad feelings, you can also generate energising, happy and exuberant emotions. Take responsibility for the way you’re feeling right now. If you are ‘losing hope’ it means that you haven’t chosen to generate hope in your life. It means that you…

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FTSE 100

Whilst out getting the regular Friday night chicken and chips I happened to glance at my phone since European markets were just getting into gear and I noticed the following quote for the FTSE 100 on Bloomberg.   Bloody glad I got those FTSE puts in place.

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How Do You Know?

 I gave a little it talk last night on complexity within markets and the question arose in the chat afterwards as to how do you know when a trader/advisor/etc is starting to panic about the market. I have a short  quick and very complete answer which is based upon my own observation over the past…

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When History and Finance Go Wrong

The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…

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Decision Fatigue

It may seem liberating to live in a land of infinite choices, but research in decision-making suggests otherwise. In a classic study, Stanford researchers set up shop at an upscale grocery store chosen for its “extraordinary selection” of items, including 300 types of jam. One Saturday afternoon, they set up a sampling booth with 24 jams;…

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