Chasing Noise

This is a rather complicated piece but the abstract does a very good job of summarising the papers content. We present a simple model in which rational but uninformed traders occasionally chase noise as if it were information, thereby amplifying sentiment shocks and moving prices away from fundamental values The notion of chasing noise as…

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Traditionally westerners equate activity with productive effort, as such the more noise and the more fuss you make the more productive you are. The same philosophy drifts into trading, as such trading becomes an activity-based endevour, which then migrates into entertainment. Research by W.B. Canoles, S.R. Thompson, S.H. Irwin, and V.G. France in their paper…

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Why Do People Fail?

When I was much younger I was introduced to the phrase that people fail because of the people they are and at the time I thought this was a bit harsh. My reasoning was that life does not deal everyone the same cards and in some ways I still hold that view. There is obvious…

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C. S. Lewis Reviews The Hobbit, 1937

The publishers claim that The Hobbit, though very unlike Alice, resembles it in being the work of a professor at play. A more important truth is that both belong to a very small class of books which have nothing in common save that each admits us to a world of its own—a world that seems to have…

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I am currently long the AMP China Capital China Growth Fund. The stated mandate of this fund is as follows – To achieve long term capital growth, with a focus on investing in China A shares. To outperform the S&P/CITIC 300 Total Return index (expressed in Australian dollar). The current chart looks like this.  …

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The Neuroscientist Who Discovered He Was a Psychopath

Many of us would hide this discovery and never tell a soul, out of fear or embarrassment of being labeled a psychopath. Perhaps because boldness and disinhibition are noted psychopathic tendencies, Fallon has gone all in towards the opposite direction, telling the world about his finding in a TED Talk, an NPR interview and now a new book published…

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RED Market Update

LB and I caught up with the funds management crew at RED the other day and were able to attend one of their client briefings. They were kind enough to allow me to copy their slide deck. The take home points for me. 1. Equities have positive momentum. 2. The great unknown at present is…

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Thanksgiving Day

Apparently that time of the year when turkeys are nervous is approaching in the US. I saw the chart below doing the rounds on the google box with a big of digging I found that  it is apparently from WSJ     So I decided to look a bit harder at stock seasonality and generated…

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