Understanding Crypto
PS: This podcast makes some very interesting points regarding the psychology of speculative tools such as crypto and NFT’S.What is particularly insightful is the notion that trading in these instruments is not necessarily about any form of economic utility but is rather a form of signaling between young men.
Paradoxical Observation Of The Day
On my social media feeds, I have a number of people who class themselves as trading psychologists. That is individuals who purport to have particular expertise in the field of trading psychology. My expectation would be that these people’s feeds would be full of advice on things such as building resilience, coping with losses, understanding…
Why Can’t We Stop Making Short-Term Market Forecasts?
Our fascination with forecasts about short-term market movements is a puzzling trait.* Investors continue to make market predictions even though we are consistently wrongfooted. When other people make an incorrect forecast, we don’t disregard what they tell us next but instead say to them: “you were entirely wrong before, what do you think will happen…
More Reality
The chart below shows that the current drawdown on the S&P/ASX200 is 7.74% – the way it is being portrayed in the media you might think it was actually down 77.4%.
Energy Markets in Turmoil
PS:If you are like me and long the energy complex beware of confirmation bias in this otherwise excellent overview.
The Professor Who Beat Roulette
On a warm night in May of 1969, a throng of awestruck gamblers crowded around a well-worn roulette table in the Italian Riviera. At the center stood a gangly 38-year-old medical professor in a rumpled suit. He’d just placed a $100,000 bet ($715,000 in 2019 dollars) on a single spin of the wheel. As the…
What Do They Talk About?
Here is a quick quiz. Below are ae two charts with both the name and price scale removed – the first is weekly, the second is daily. What is the predominant trend of both? If you were able to glance at both charts and recognise that they were both timeframes showing a downtrend then take…
The 120-MPH, 35,000 Feet, 3-Minutes-To-Impact Survival Guide
This might come in handy in the next few days….. You have a late night and an early flight. Not long after takeoff, you drift to sleep. Suddenly, you’re wide awake. There’s cold air rushing everywhere, and sound. Intense, horrible sound. Where am I?, you think. Where’s the plane? You’re 6 miles up. You’re alone. You’re falling.…
