The Lure of Incredible Certitude

I have snipped the abstract below from this paper – The Lure of Incredible Certitude Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers…

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How to Avoid Loneliness When You Work Entirely from Home

Working from home can be a coveted perk, allowing you to opt out of rush-hour traffic and eliminate the tedious banalities of office life. But it can also cut you off from the spontaneous interactions that can spark new insights (part of the reason Marissa Mayer famously rescinded Yahoo’s telecommuting policies). And, at times, the solitude may lead to…

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The Delusion Is Strong In this One

Australia is a fascinating place not least for some of its quaint (read staggeringly unrealistic) attitudes to things. I live in an area where English cottage gardens are often the preferred mode of vegetative display. And each year these gardens that are wonderfully manicured during spring are burnt to a crisp during our ferocious summers.…

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In Conversation: Billy Joel

On a July morning, Billy Joel watches through the window of the study at his Long Island estate as a helicopter takes flight. “My wife had to go into the city today,” he says as the Joel family chopper ascends. He smiles. “Life is funny, isn’t it?” It’s a week before the singer and erstwhile…

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The Cognitive Biases Tricking Your Brain

I am staring at a photograph of myself that shows me 20 years older than I am now. I have not stepped into the twilight zone. Rather, I am trying to rid myself of some measure of my present bias, which is the tendency people have, when considering a trade-off between two future moments, to more heavily…

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Is Loss Aversion A Fallacy?

I have been sitting on this one for a bit since I am not convinced. The practical me – that is the one who has a business that regularly confronts losses is not convinced. Loss aversion, the idea that losses are more psychologically impactful than gains, is widely considered the most important idea of behavioral…

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There Can Be Only One

When I was a student I used to work security be it pubs, concerts or private functions. It paid reasonably well and suited the lifestyle of a full-time student who was also training with state teams. A good night was simply watching girls with big hair dancing around their handbags to Bananarama at the 21st…

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Is the S&P/ASX200 Irrelevant Part 2

Following on from my last  missive I have cobbled together a list of the additions and deletions since 2011. Additions Deletions Afterpay Touch Group (APT) Asaleo Care (AHY) Appen (APX) Iron Mountain Incorporated (INM) Inghams Group (ING) Retail Food Group (RFG) Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield CDIs (URW) Westfield Corporation (WFD) OneMarket Limited (OMN) Mantra Group (MTR) IDP Education…

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