Complexity Bias: Why We Prefer Complicated to Simple

Complexity bias is a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue credence to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. That’s usually the option with the most assumptions and regressions. As a result, when we need to solve a problem, we may ignore simple solutions…

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The Last Pinball Doctors

Mike Hooker spends his nights maintaining trains on the Long Island Railroad. He spends his days fixing pinball machines. He’s a freelance pinball repair tech, one of the last serving the New York City area. As you might expect, people call him when their old stuff breaks; often times, they simply want to get rid…

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Yes….It Is Hot During Summer…

Apparently, this little piece of information is a complete and utter surprise to most Australians  judging by the level of commentary attached to the current hot spell sweeping the country. The point that most intrigues me is that Australians are constantly surprised by the fact that their country gets friggen hot during summer and each…

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Its Been How Long?

Apparently hearts are a flutter in the investment world because it has supposedly been sometime since the US market had any form of meaningful decline. This has even prompted many to go around saying that the end of the world is inevitable and as usual this sort of thing piqued my curiosity. So, I thought…

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How Bitcoins Ascent Stacks Up

Despite all claims to the contrary the life cycle of the boom/bust phenomena has remained unchanged for hundreds of years. Source – Bloomberg PS:I made an interesting observation last night whilst looking at my LinkedIn profile. I consider LinkedIn to be little more than Facebook for people with a job. However, it was interesting to…

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Why Self-Compassion Beats Self-Confidence

Be more confident,” a friend once told me as we made the rounds at a swanky networking event where I felt terribly out of place. Faking confidence is easy: I pulled my shoulders back and spoke louder and with more assertiveness. Like many soft-spoken, mild-mannered people, I’ve spent a great deal of time trying to…

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Impatience: The Pitfall Of Every Ambitious Person

One of my mentors is an art dealer. He specializes in art from the middle ages. Last time we met, he showed me a part of his personal collection. Impressed by the size of the collection, I asked how long it took to accumulate everything. He said “45 years,” and then he laughed when I…

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Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem

Abstract To its proponents, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin offers the potential to disrupt payment systems and traditional currencies. It has also been subject to security breaches and wild price fluctuations. This paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange, in which approximately 600,000 bitcoins (BTC) valued at $188…

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Why Would You Do That?

The previous post about bear market funds and the difficulties they have faced during the current spectacular US bull market fascinated me. My central point of interest is based around the question – why would you bother?  There are a few conflicting points that come to mind. Markets in general have strong upward bias. However,…

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