LATEST BLOGS

An Observation

Whilst scrolling through ASX listed ETO stocks I noticed something interesting – the performance of the top 20 listed stocks is quite mixed and different to the broader index. The chart below shows the S&P/ASX20 (white) versus the S&P/ASX200 (blue). The S&P/ASX20 is down about 0.59% YTD whereas the S&P/ASX200 is down 6.1% YTD. Given…

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How To Stay Optimistic In These Dark Times

In 1979, President Jimmy Carter gave his famous “Crisis of Confidence” speech (also known as the “malaise” speech, though he didn’t actually use the word). Forty-three years later, it seems as if the country is stuck in at least as bad of a funk. In a recent article, Derek Thompson of the Atlantic reported on rising feelings of…

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What’s The Fuss About

The chart below is of the RBA cash rate – if you blow the chart up and squint really hard you can see the recent rise in the cash rate. Apparently, this return to normal transmission where interest rates do something other than go down continually is causing a few people to have conniptions. Taking…

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From The More Money Than Brains File

A Ford GT owner in Boca Raton, Florida crashed his recently purchased supercar into a tree Friday evening because he was “unfamiliar with how to drive stick shift,” police say. The driver, 50-year-old Robert J. Guarini, told cops he lost control after downshifting while leaving his housing development at around 6 p.m, a police report says. This…

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The Destruction Of Wealth

Every generation bears witness to the destruction of wealth – all booms end in a bust that is the natural cycle of the markets. These busts always follow on the heels of what has become known as irrational exuberance and this exuberance is fueled by hubris. But as each investing generation learns price goeth before…

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Averaging Down Is Friggen Stupid

One of the eternal truths about trading is that it is conducted by humans and humans are flawed. This is simply the nature of the universe. However, what this means is that all humans irrespective of culture, background, or education are prone to making the same errors. There is a great myth in markets that…

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Change The World – Perhaps Not

RobinHood (HOOD) was supposed to redo the way people “did” trading by removing what was considered the old stuffy Wall Street way of doing things by effectively gamifying trading. Perhaps not today. What the likes of HOOD, PTON, and ZM demonstrate is that the one constant in markets is that history repeats. Irrational exuberance is…

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Perception Versus Reality

Coincidence is a wonderfully odd thing. Whilst filling the truck at the local petrol station this morning a car pulled up at the bowser next to me – there is nothing earth-shatteringly exciting about this other than the interesting fact that it had three reasonably new parking tickets on under one of its windscreen wipers.…

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Most Important Chart Of 2022

Baring some other catastrophe the current uptick in interest rates in the US (and eventually here) will be the most important “economic “event” of the year with ramifications not so much for equities but definitely for real estate. Interest rates have been in a long-term drift downwards for three decades as shown in the chart…

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Milk Futures

It’s not just the more widely traded “food” related commodities that have been on a tear. I have always regarded milk as a legacy contract leftover from days gone by but it has done extremely well over the past year.

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