Commodities Supercycle or Bump

There is much talk about an emerging commodities supercycle and as can be seen below commodities as a broad group has been on a tear this year. As to whether this is the beginning of a multi-year cycle is anyone’s guess – notice I used the word guess because nobody has a cue. We will…

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What is Your Why?

At its core trading is a psychological endevour – you can draw all the fancy lines you want on a chart, consult your horoscope, read your tea leaves or read whatever fish and chip wrapper that passes for a newspaper. But at the end of the day, you have to take the trade, manage the…

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How to Predict a Market Crash

Sure, why not. The great thing about the Internet is we have the ability to look at the track record of the person making outlandish claims to see if it makes sense to give credence to their predictions. More here – A Wealth of Common Sense

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The Effect of Testosterone on Economic Risk-Taking

Abstract Testosterone has been suggested to influence individuals’ economic decision making, yet the effects of testosterone on economic behavior are not well-understood and existing research is equivocal. In response, in three studies, we examined the extent to which testosterone affected or was associated with several different facets of economic decision making. Study 1 was a double-blind,…

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Lockdown 5.0 Ponderings

Further time in lockdown gives one time to muse about the state of the world and other such things and in one of those happy coincidences that the universe throws up every now and again, two events conspired to confirm two of my deeply held beliefs. Whilst finishing a course of medication I was emptying…

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Heavy Lifting

One of the things that has always interested me about markets is the use or misuse of benchmarks such as the All Ordinaries Index or the S&P/ASX/200. I am always interested in how people measure the success of their portfolio against such tools – in part it makes sense but in part, various indices also…

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I Dont Think The Market Cares

I was having a flick through our corporate Twitter feed when I saw someone bemoaning the fact that INTU was trading at 50x earnings. I don’t think the market really cares. But it is an example of the disconnect between the belief structure that dictates that you think you know what something should be worth…

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The Value of Intellectual Rigor

Sarah Tavel has spent the past four years as a general partner at venture capital firm Benchmark, after previously serving in the same role with Greylock Partners and as the first-ever product manager at Pinterest. In this episode Shane and Sarah how studying philosophy helped in her career as a venture capitalist, the value of…

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You Can Teach Yourself to Suffer Better

Two weeks into his 38-day solo row across the North Atlantic, Bryce Carlson got a disturbing update from his weather team. Hurricane Chris’s 90-mile-per-hour winds were stirring up 45-foot waves, much more than his 20-foot rowboat could handle—and the storm was headed his way. He veered south to avoid its path, but that meant rowing directly…

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