Ten Minutes With Tate – The Fear Of A Rising Market
How Many Tulips Can You Buy With One Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s sudden rise has people thinking about the ludicrous heights that tulips achieved in the Netherlands in the 1630s. At the peak of that bubble, a single tulip bulb could cost more than ten times a craftsman’s annual salary. While some of these prices were “justified” by market forces—the rarest breeds were enviable luxury goods—the…
Chasing Noise
This is a rather complicated piece but the abstract does a very good job of summarising the papers content. We present a simple model in which rational but uninformed traders occasionally chase noise as if it were information, thereby amplifying sentiment shocks and moving prices away from fundamental values The notion of chasing noise as…
The Most Positive Chart I Have Seen All Week
Talking heads are losing traction – now if only the same thing would happen to Fox.
Entertainment
Traditionally westerners equate activity with productive effort, as such the more noise and the more fuss you make the more productive you are. The same philosophy drifts into trading, as such trading becomes an activity-based endevour, which then migrates into entertainment. Research by W.B. Canoles, S.R. Thompson, S.H. Irwin, and V.G. France in their paper…
Why Do People Fail?
When I was much younger I was introduced to the phrase that people fail because of the people they are and at the time I thought this was a bit harsh. My reasoning was that life does not deal everyone the same cards and in some ways I still hold that view. There is obvious…
C. S. Lewis Reviews The Hobbit, 1937
The publishers claim that The Hobbit, though very unlike Alice, resembles it in being the work of a professor at play. A more important truth is that both belong to a very small class of books which have nothing in common save that each admits us to a world of its own—a world that seems to have…
Contrast
I am currently long the AMP China Capital China Growth Fund. The stated mandate of this fund is as follows – To achieve long term capital growth, with a focus on investing in China A shares. To outperform the S&P/CITIC 300 Total Return index (expressed in Australian dollar). The current chart looks like this. …
The Neuroscientist Who Discovered He Was a Psychopath
Many of us would hide this discovery and never tell a soul, out of fear or embarrassment of being labeled a psychopath. Perhaps because boldness and disinhibition are noted psychopathic tendencies, Fallon has gone all in towards the opposite direction, telling the world about his finding in a TED Talk, an NPR interview and now a new book published…
RED Market Update
LB and I caught up with the funds management crew at RED the other day and were able to attend one of their client briefings. They were kind enough to allow me to copy their slide deck. The take home points for me. 1. Equities have positive momentum. 2. The great unknown at present is…
