WHEN HRISTOS DOUCOULIAGOS was a young economist in the mid-1990s, he got interested in all the ways economics was wrong about itself—bias, underpowered research, statistical shenanigans. Nobody wanted to hear it. “I’d go to seminars and people would say, ‘You’ll never get this published,’” Doucouliagos, now at Deakin University in Australia, says. “They’d say, ‘this is bordering on libel.’”…
I have been having a bit of a play with the All Ordinaries yearly returns since 1901 and I cobbled together the table below which I have coloured red and blue. Red is those years where the return is below the average of 9.8% and blue is those years of above average return. What is…
PS: If you are too young to know what these are then sadly you have missed out on a world of adventure.
That human beings can be mistaken in anything they think or do is a proposition known as fallibilism. Stated abstractly like that, it is seldom contradicted. Yet few people have ever seriously believed it, either. That our senses often fail us is a truism; and our self-critical culture has long ago made us familiar with the…
Since returning from London where LB and I caught Motown the Musical I have been giving my Motown collection a bit of a going over.
The interview in the post below with Daniel Kahneman got me going back over some old links that looked at the application of his and Amos Tversky’s ideas to trading and the chestnut I keep coming up against is the following question. You have been given a choice between either – a. $100 guaranteed, or b.…
Why Do We Believe Stupid Things – David Harding Why Do Smart People Do Foolish Things – Scientific American
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