Why We’re Blind to Probability

The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks. But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else. It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it. Most people get that certainties…

Read more

Our Dangerous Addiction to Prediction

In Alex Garland’s recent sci-fi TV series Devs, Silicon Valley engineers have built a quantum computer that they think proves determinism. It allows them to know the position of all the particles in the universe at any given point, and from there, project backwards and forwards in time, seeing into the past and making pinpoint-accurate forecasts…

Read more

How Not to Be Stupid

Adam Robinson: Right. It’s so funny you should ask that, because people think stupidity is the opposite of intelligence. In fact, stupidity is the cost of intelligence operating in a complex environment. It’s almost inevitable. And so I was asked by an organizer of an investment conference in the Bahamas of some elite global investors…

Read more

Maybe A Small Silver Lining

Whilst it is difficult to see anything that is positive coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic in years to come we may look back and say at least we were spared Russia’s entry into the Eurovision 2020 Song Contest. What has been seen cannot be unseen……

Read more

Confirmation Bias And the Power of Disconfirming Evidence

Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias explains why two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. This cognitive bias is most pronounced in the case of ingrained, ideological, or emotionally charged views.…

Read more

Buy and Hold – How Is That Working Out For You

Imagine we have a way back machine and we wander into your broker or financial planners office in 2007 and ask them to generate a portfolio for us. I can guarantee you that your portfolio will have at least two of the local big four banks in it. The argument for including them will include…

Read more

How the Veil of Ignorance Helps Test Fairness

Few will have the greatness to bend history itself, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events. It is from numberless diverse acts of courage and belief that human history is shaped. Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or…

Read more

I Love A Good Conspiracy Theory

One of the things that has always interested me in humans is the desire to partition the world into little segments that are easy to understand, my view has always been that most of these dichotomies are false and are simply a mechanism of delineating groups into good and bad. Of course, everyone who splits…

Read more

Richard Feynman On Believing What Isn’t True

In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for…

Read more


Want to be an exceptional trader? Learn from the best. Chris and Louise have found the way to take the guesswork out of share trading.
They can teach you how to do this too!


Want to learn every instrument, over every time frame, where you trade your own plan?