So You Think You Can Value A Company Do You?

I must admit having fun with value investors is a somewhat akin to shooting fish in a barrel The hubris required to believe that you and you alone actually know what something is worth and that the market will believe you is extraordinary. Consider the case of HP’s acquisition of software maker Autonomy, they thought…

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The graphic below is from Thomson Reuters – the original can be found here This is a weekly chart of gold – Take your pick as to which one makes sense to base a decision on…….

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Asian Markets

I am planning on doing a longer piece on the heterogeneous nature of Asian markets as a function of their cultural and economic background. In the meantime I needed to generate a chart of the comparative performance of the Nikkei, the Hang Seng and the doggy Shanghai Composite over the past year.

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I like everyone else has been ear bashed by the notion of the fiscal cliff – that is yet another seemingly childish staring contest by people who are supposedly adults. We have seen several of these this year particularly in Europe where the Greeks and the Germans tried to out dickhead each other before actually…

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My news reader picked up this little piece this morning – Trio of Strategists Agree S&P 500 to Reach Record in 2013 Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian yesterday joined Citigroup Inc.’s Tobias Levkovich and Bank of Montreal (BMO)’s Brian Belski in predicting the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks will top the high of 1,565.15 set on…

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The Finland Phenomena

It often surprises me that we dont seek to learn from the best in the world but rather that we slavishly copy the worst in the world. It is quite clear by many measures that Finland has one of the worlds best education systems. It produces outcomes well beyond our own which seems to be…

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The Miracle Of China

Markets are good at telling you what the real story is. Watching price is not like listening to someone tell a story since people place their own filters on the information they receive and then filter it again for public consumption. People tell themselves what they want to hear and what they think will be…

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Harvey Norman And The Real World

I was having tea and toast this morning when I spied this quote from Gerry Harvey…… HARVEY Norman executive chairman Gerry Harvey says industry conditions remain dire and he expects more retailers will go bust next year after the Christmas sales are over. ”There are more retailers currently under pressure than I’ve ever seen ……

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The Magic Of Magical Thinking…

By mistake I caught an item on the news about the ongoing battle of immunisation which to me seems to be a war being fought by people with a deep understanding of risk and the immunological basis of vaccination and idiots. This graphic sums up the later group. Source – This is Indexed   This…

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Still Think You Can Beat The Market?

One of the most maligned ideas in economics is the efficient market hypothesis, perhaps because what is actually a rather technical statement about financial market returns is conflated with some entirely different claim about the superiority of free markets over government dirigisme. The EMH has various forms, but in brief its message is very simple:…

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