I know staggeringly little about the economics of agriculture which is why I found this Twitter thread so interesting. More wheat stats. My personal favorite Misleading Wheat Stat is “Ukraine/Russia grow 25% of world wheat exports.” Why’s it misleading? It’s technically true, but doesn’t mean what people think! Missing wheat from the war is actually…
PS: This podcast makes some very interesting points regarding the psychology of speculative tools such as crypto and NFT’S.What is particularly insightful is the notion that trading in these instruments is not necessarily about any form of economic utility but is rather a form of signaling between young men.
On my social media feeds, I have a number of people who class themselves as trading psychologists. That is individuals who purport to have particular expertise in the field of trading psychology. My expectation would be that these people’s feeds would be full of advice on things such as building resilience, coping with losses, understanding…
Our fascination with forecasts about short-term market movements is a puzzling trait.* Investors continue to make market predictions even though we are consistently wrongfooted. When other people make an incorrect forecast, we don’t disregard what they tell us next but instead say to them: “you were entirely wrong before, what do you think will happen…
The chart below shows that the current drawdown on the S&P/ASX200 is 7.74% – the way it is being portrayed in the media you might think it was actually down 77.4%.
PS:If you are like me and long the energy complex beware of confirmation bias in this otherwise excellent overview.
On a warm night in May of 1969, a throng of awestruck gamblers crowded around a well-worn roulette table in the Italian Riviera. At the center stood a gangly 38-year-old medical professor in a rumpled suit. He’d just placed a $100,000 bet ($715,000 in 2019 dollars) on a single spin of the wheel. As the…
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