Survivor bias is a perennial problem in systems testing. Put simply survivor bias is the logical fallacy of ascribing a value to something that has past a given bench mark or hurdle by virtue of longevity. In doing so you overlook those things that have disappeared along the way. For example lets assume I was…
“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” (Brilliant description – wish I had thought of it) The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every…
The economist J.K. Galbraith once wrote, “Faced with a choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof.” Leo Tolstoy was even bolder: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of…
In the 1930s, a German coach named Woldemar Gerschler came up with a novel idea to help runners better manage their time. He discovered that they could accomplish more in a given stretch if they broke it down into discrete chunks of running, followed by brief breaks. For instance, you’ll run faster, farther, and with…
The rise of China is remarkable. Hint – switch off the sound the background music is bloody irritating.
“How we spend our days,” Annie Dillard memorably wrote in her soul-stretching meditation on the life of presence, “is, of course, how we spend our lives.” And yet most of us spend our days in what Kierkegaard believed to be our greatest source of unhappiness — a refusal to recognize that “busy is a decision”…
Trail running has long been my happy place. Actually, any form of running enables me to start my day invigorated and ready to go. Regular exercise associates with many upsides. Exercising so that we can live longer is a draw for a few. Most master athletes I have met exercise because they have to. They…
IF I WAS TO FRONT up to your doorstep carrying a huge ‘Trader of the Year’ trophy, what would your reaction be? Would you feel worthy of accepting this award because you’re a disciplined, consistent trader? Or, would you hang your head in shame? It’s up to you to give yourself your own accolades as…
THIS WORLD OF SOCIAL media and new fandangled ways of doing business sometimes have me scratching my head. One thing that I’ve just found out is that people look at these things called ‘Google Reviews’. Who knew, hey? The only thing is… because I’ve just found out about it, I’ve never promoted it. So, here’s…
FREUD ONCE SAID “One day, in retrospect, the years of struggle will strike you as the most beautiful”. What pain are you willing to go through to become a profitable trader? So many of us want to skip the struggle and go straight to the reward. Life doesn’t work that way. The traders who decide…
“AHHH… STOCKBOT… What an insightful, mechanical trader you are!” I said, as I sipped my margarita. “Teach us your ways, oh wise one. We are but mere fallible trading humans, struggling to achieve your level of perfection.” And… at that… Stockbot took a liberal gulp of his own cocktail – a long, cool glass of…
Norman Triplett was a pioneer in the psychology of magic, and back in 1900, he published a wonderful scientific paper on magic that, among many other things, discusses an experiment on an intriguing magical illusion. A magician sat at a table in front of a group of schoolchildren and threw a ball up in the…
It’s seven in the morning on the beach in Santa Monica, California. The low sun glints off the waves and the clouds are still golden from the dawn. The view stretches out over thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean. In the distance, white villas of wealthy Los Angeles residents dot the Hollywood hills. Here by…
If you have ever wondered why the world is like it is consider the image below which is a snip of an email I received this morning. Apparently in their largess the UN has decided to give me $7.5M if I send them $12,000. Intriguingly scams like this are like any other business, you wouldn’t…
Sometimes when you look at a group of prices what you see is not necessarily what you get as I found out when I had a quick look at base metal prices. What triggered this little foray into a segment of the market I dont really deal in was the piece below that appeared on…
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