A Christmas Present
…….for the wanker in your life…..
Daniel Kahneman
Having started rereading parts of Thinking Fast and Slow I thought it was worth revisiting this
Dow – Update
Price is still meandering around the initial fail point. One of the mistakes I see traders make is that they see a chart like the one below and instantly drop into confirmation bias mode simply because price looks as if it might be moving higher. Current price action doesn’t really confirm whether this trade is…
John Henry Shuts Up Shop
It was recently announced that one of the pioneers of managed futures John W Henry was shutting up shop after several difficult years in which his funds under management shrank from $2.5 billion in 2006 to around a $100 million. This made me wonder two things. Firstly, is there a shelf life to money managers.?…
The Myth of American Meritocracy
Lately I have had a bit of waiting time and I was able to read this article in full. Of the entire piece I found the passage below the most disturbing. As a history buff I am familiar with such behaviour in the old Soviet Union and Germany in the 1930’s where admission to schools…
We Are Alive
Rock tours generally have a theme: a band’s coltish arrival, a new style or look, a reunion, a new set of songs, a political moment. Springsteen was salting the show with the political material from “Wrecking Ball,” but the most vivid theme on this tour was to be time passing, age, death, and, if Springsteen…
Why Too Much Data Disables Your Decision Making
Quick, think back to a major decision. You know, the kind that compelled you to read everything on a topic and lead you to spend hours devouring every last scrap of data. How’d that work out for you? We like to think that more information drives smarter decisions; that the more details we absorb, the…
Two Surprisingly Related Items
Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…
How To Win At Forecasting
I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…
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