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The Magic Of Magical Thinking…

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By mistake I caught an item on the news about the ongoing battle of immunisation which to me seems to be a war being fought by people with a deep understanding of risk and the immunological basis of vaccination and idiots. This graphic sums up the later group. Source – This is Indexed   This…

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Still Think You Can Beat The Market?

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One of the most maligned ideas in economics is the efficient market hypothesis, perhaps because what is actually a rather technical statement about financial market returns is conflated with some entirely different claim about the superiority of free markets over government dirigisme. The EMH has various forms, but in brief its message is very simple:…

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Drive For Show…..Putt For Dough

There are a lot of similarity between golf and trading. Both are fundamentally mental activities and the person who makes the fewest catastrophic errors wins. Golfers are also prone to the same sort of magical thinking that afflicts traders – if I use so and so’s clubs then my game will get better. Which is…

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Amazon

Excellent piece on Amazon and its CEO Jeff Bezo. The part that intrigued me was this – Make no mistake, Amazon rewards its teams. It’s just that restricted stock that becomes valuable only over time — and more valuable only if the company succeeds — is the primary reward. For example, Jeff Wilke, who runs Amazon’s…

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Apple Versus Microsoft

I came across the chart below on the weekend. Source – Why Microsoft Beats Apple Unfortunately, it was accompanied by the following quote – Today, those old rivals MicrosoftMSFT -0.53% and AppleAAPL +0.39% both look like inexpensive stocks. Microsoft could be the better value. Not only is it cheaper than Apple relative to its earnings per share, but Microsoft’s…

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