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LATEST BLOGS

Even More Fun With Indices

I have had a bit more fun playing with indices and the theoretical rate of returns they generate over the long term. This time I wanted to look at a different segmentation within the market – I split the All Ordinaries Total Return and the Small Ordinaries Total Return and looked at their relative return.…

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Traders Playlist

Sean K came up with a brilliant traders playlist in the MP forum Mindset:- Hang in Long enough – Phil Collins (love the sentiment…) Comfortably Numb – Pink Floyd (the impassive, unemotional state we aim for as traders) Learning to Fly – Pink Floyd (reaching for higher goals) Dreams Don’t Turn into Dust – Owl…

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The Lure of Incredible Certitude

I have snipped the abstract below from this paper – The Lure of Incredible Certitude Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers…

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How to Avoid Loneliness When You Work Entirely from Home

Working from home can be a coveted perk, allowing you to opt out of rush-hour traffic and eliminate the tedious banalities of office life. But it can also cut you off from the spontaneous interactions that can spark new insights (part of the reason Marissa Mayer famously rescinded Yahoo’s telecommuting policies). And, at times, the solitude may lead to…

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The Delusion Is Strong In this One

Australia is a fascinating place not least for some of its quaint (read staggeringly unrealistic) attitudes to things. I live in an area where English cottage gardens are often the preferred mode of vegetative display. And each year these gardens that are wonderfully manicured during spring are burnt to a crisp during our ferocious summers.…

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In Conversation: Billy Joel

On a July morning, Billy Joel watches through the window of the study at his Long Island estate as a helicopter takes flight. “My wife had to go into the city today,” he says as the Joel family chopper ascends. He smiles. “Life is funny, isn’t it?” It’s a week before the singer and erstwhile…

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The Cognitive Biases Tricking Your Brain

I am staring at a photograph of myself that shows me 20 years older than I am now. I have not stepped into the twilight zone. Rather, I am trying to rid myself of some measure of my present bias, which is the tendency people have, when considering a trade-off between two future moments, to more heavily…

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Is Loss Aversion A Fallacy?

I have been sitting on this one for a bit since I am not convinced. The practical me – that is the one who has a business that regularly confronts losses is not convinced. Loss aversion, the idea that losses are more psychologically impactful than gains, is widely considered the most important idea of behavioral…

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