LATEST BLOGS

Monty Hall Problem and Variations

You stand before three closed doors. The doors are evenly spaced and appear identical, aside from being numbered from 1 to 3. One of the doors conceals a car, while each of the other two doors conceals a goat. The host of this game, Monty Hall, asks you to select a door. If you select the…

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This Took Me By Surprise

Whilst having breakfast at my local this morning I spied a piece on the resurgence of Microsoft  (MSFT) under current CEO Satya Nadelle who has managed to move the company beyond some the disastrous decisions made by former CEO Steve Ballmer. The thrust of the piece was the MSFT was worth almost as much as…

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Final Thoughts for December

UNDER PRESSURE WE snap. We get paranoid. We assume the worst. It crushes our sense of fun and our passion. I see it in my friends. Stress mounts up and they become their worst version of themselves… or the best. Some take it as a platform to launch themselves into their true life’s purpose. Recognising…

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Should You Delegate?

LET’S ASSUME YOU work the average 40 hours per week, but you’re an over-achiever so you put in 50-weeks a year. That’s 2,000 hours of paid employment. If you want to make $100,000 a year, each working hour needs to produce $50. If you want $1 million a year, each working hour must produce $500.…

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Old Before Their Time

SO MANY PEOPLE ARE old before their time. With their dour pessimism dripping off their faces, they snivel and gripe about the most minor things. Even some 30 year-olds can seem like grumpy old men and women if their attitude is below par. What happened to their youthful awe and wonder about the world? Their…

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Purpose Trumps Passion

I HEARD A TRADER literally say, “Oh my god, I want to trade full-time so badly. I’m putting in 100%, and I’m going to throw everything I’ve got at it. This is my passion. I love everything about trading!” Then, I watched in dismay as they fizzled out after a series of 12-hour days watching…

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People Don’t Want Jobs Anymore

A LOAD OF PEOPLE no longer want a boss. According to a new report by an accounting company called FreshBooks, the number of self-employed workers could triple by 2020. According to CNN Money, today, the average person has four different jobs before the age of thirty two. Twenty years ago, the average person had only…

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Myth and Reality

One of the problems with trading is that it is awash with various pieces of wisdom and mythology that dont stand up to scrutiny. I try as much as possible to run an evidence based life and when I dont understand something or I hear something that is a bit off the stock standard piece…

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Why Is This Still A Question?

Consider the headline below – Source – The New York Times I am still surprised within academic circles that the value of exercise in delaying many age-related illnesses is still a matter for debate and that the press react so breathlessly to these pronouncements. And you don’t even have to go to the gym to…

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The Great FAANG Prang

I spied this little piece from the NY Times which had the accompanying headline and graphic. The recent pullback in the US quite naturally took a lot of the  high flyers with it. What caught my eye was not that these stocks had fallen but that their drop was seized on by many commentators as…

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Emotional Inertia

I have always been a fan of Decision Theory – the notion of how we make decisions with varying amounts of information has always been fascinating to me. This should seem obvious since trading is a profession that straddles both normative and descriptive decision making. Normative decision is about making decisions with incomplete information whereas…

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