Thought for the Day

I heard the following the other day – what you tolerate in your present becomes your standard. I cannot remember where I heard but it stuck in my head because it is somewhat akin to my notion that you are where you are because that’s where you want to be. If you wanted to be…

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The Logical Delusions of Traders

Traders are an interesting bunch in that they believe themselves to calm, rational and disciplined and that through the application of this cold logic they see the world as it actually is. If truth be told traders are among the most gullible, least logical and certainly least scientific/innumerate group I have come across. Consider the…

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Subcriticality, Spread, and Future of Now

Much has been written about how life will be after we are done with COVID-19 – some of it sensible, some of it mere hyperbole but one of the more thoughtful pieces I have come across is this one by Paul Kedrosky a venture capitalist who jotted down some thoughts in one of his in…

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The Biggest Psychological Experiment in History Is Running Now

The science of resilience, which investigates how people weather adversity, offers some clues. A resilient individual, wrote Harvard University psychiatrist George Vaillant, resembles a twig with a fresh, green living core. “When twisted out of shape, such a twig bends, but it does not break; instead it springs back and continues growing.” The metaphor describes…

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Why is Extrapolation so Dangerous for Investors?

At the start of the last decade everyone was bullish on emerging market equities.  It is hard to recall now, but it was the consensus trade.  You couldn’t attend a meeting or conference without being told how many people there were in China or how underwhelming the growth prospects were for developed economies compared to…

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Crap Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a broad church that runs from high powered quants who scan reams of data looking patterns and anomalies to the near religious zealotry of Gann followers to simpletons like me who merely want to know if the trend appears to be up or down. Unfortunately, this broadness brings with it problems as…

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Jeff Bezos Step Aside

Loving all the talk about outrageous returns on social media lately. Particularly those claiming deep triple-digit returns. The attached image shows what 1000% return looks like on various starting amounts. Expect to see some of you in Forbes list of billionaires quite soon.

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Well Bugger

I offer this without comment. The background is that apparently this punter thought that Luckin Coffee INC ADR was a sure thing and put their life savings into it. Apparently it didn’t go as planned. For reference.

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Why Lives Are Like They Are

I am often perplexed when people begin to talk about the state of their lives. My confusion arises because I see their actions and then think well your life couldn’t really go any other way. I have mentioned my postie before who goes home and undoubtedly wonders why he is not the chairman of the…

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Can Meditation Make Us Better Traders And Investors?

There is significant evidence that meditation can help us deal with stressful situations, including the recent pandemic and the challenges of doctoral education, as well as mental health concerns such as depression and anxiety. The site, in their review of the science behind meditation, notes such benefits as improved attention, increased emotional resilience, greater…

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