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…it gives me someone to poke fun at The Long-Term Argument for Dow 20,000 Despite all that is written about the folly of prediction and how experts are chronically wrong in almost every prediction they make people still pay attention to them.
Every so often you come across a statement that so neatly encapsulates what is wrong with almost every aspect of the modern world that you stand and marvel that someone has actually uttered it. Whilst heading off to the gym I heard that at a recent get together someone had stated that the war on…
If you have not done so watch Ken Burns documentary on the Civil War – it is a profoundly compelling and surprisingly gentle doco on a nation tearing itself apart. Ken Burns: On Story from Redglass Pictures on Vimeo.
Came across this interesting little paper. The title can be a little confusing since the term prediction market is simply used to convey a market that generates odds. When they say prediction market think bookmaker. The gist of the paper is that such markets have been used for centuries for a variety of events but…
Over the past few years a popular bit of folk lore has taken hold in the minds of the non critical thinking members of the public. This odd quirk in thinking is essentially that talent is over rated as a commodity and that all that is required for success in a given field is practice.…
This is my reading/watching list for the weekend….. Why Floundering Is Good – Psychology Today Living Cells Show How to Fix the Financial System – Bloomberg 89 Business Cliches That Will Get Any MBA Promoted And Make Them Totally Useless – Forbes Eugene Fama – Do Active Managers Earn Their Fees? – ClientInsights…..here is a…
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