The chart below flashed across my screen this morning, ostensibly it is related to a story on the potential seasonal nature of earnings. What the authors haven’t realised is that it highlights a completely different point – analysts dont have a clue what they are doing yet financial journalists write stories around the rubbish data…
One of the things that has always fascinated me about technical analysis is the capacity of people to argue over the irrelevant. I am quite certain there are blokes in little clubs all over the world arguing that the RSI should be set to 12 and not 9 because that makes all the difference. It…
Phillip Teo of TraderWave (our breakfast friend Singapore) talks to Ray Barros. I have always enjoyed listening to Ray. In the dim dark recesses of my mind I have a recollection of us sharing a stage decades and decades ago. He sees parts of the world a little differently to me but there is always…
Ed Boyden builds the tools and technologies that help researchers think about and treat the brain, an organ we still know surprisingly little about. When it comes to how our brains make decisions, form emotions, and exhibit consciousness, there is still a lot we can learn. But just as fascinating as the tools Boyden and…
Brad Stulberg is a writer, performance coach, and coauthor (with Steve Magness) of an intriguing new book on the role of passion at the workplace in beyond—specifically, the ways in which it can be a double-edged sword. The book, The Passion Paradox, draws on scientific research and personal stories to illuminate how to discover and cultivate…
In a crumbling edifice, a farce plays out. The hapless central character fawns on an aristocrat who turns out to be a conman. He then fails to disguise his unease when confronted with his European neighbours, doesn’t bother to mask a thorough contempt for the Irish, and enters a love-hate relationship with ostentatiously wealthy Americans.…
Another chance to listen to the comedian, Ricky Gervais speaking to Kirsty Young in 2007. In just twelve episodes, his show The Office changed the face of British television comedy. At its centre was the comic monster, David Brent, a middle-manager being filmed for a mock-documentary who saw the ever-present cameras as his route to…
This undoubtedly has implications for the both the data set of stocks you trade and any ETF you select to represent a market. It is probably indicative of the fact that the Dow is an outmoded anachronistic index that is still rooted in the 20th century. For example Boeing makes up 9.6% of the index…
Survivor bias is a perennial problem in systems testing. Put simply survivor bias is the logical fallacy of ascribing a value to something that has past a given bench mark or hurdle by virtue of longevity. In doing so you overlook those things that have disappeared along the way. For example lets assume I was…
“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” (Brilliant description – wish I had thought of it) The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every…
The economist J.K. Galbraith once wrote, “Faced with a choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof.” Leo Tolstoy was even bolder: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of…
In the 1930s, a German coach named Woldemar Gerschler came up with a novel idea to help runners better manage their time. He discovered that they could accomplish more in a given stretch if they broke it down into discrete chunks of running, followed by brief breaks. For instance, you’ll run faster, farther, and with…
The rise of China is remarkable. Hint – switch off the sound the background music is bloody irritating.
“How we spend our days,” Annie Dillard memorably wrote in her soul-stretching meditation on the life of presence, “is, of course, how we spend our lives.” And yet most of us spend our days in what Kierkegaard believed to be our greatest source of unhappiness — a refusal to recognize that “busy is a decision”…
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