The Science of Making Decisions

Imagine the most mind-numbing choice you’ve faced lately, one in which the possibilities almost paralyzed you: buying a car, choosing a health-care plan, figuring out what to do with your 401(k). The anxiety you felt might have been just the well-known consequence of information overload, but Angelika Dimoka, director of the Center for Neural Decision…

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Why It’s Good To Be Wrong

That human beings can be mistaken in anything they think or do is a proposition known as fallibilism. Stated abstractly like that, it is seldom contradicted. Yet few people have ever seriously believed it, either. That our senses often fail us is a truism; and our self-critical culture has long ago made us familiar with…

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Peculiarities Of The Dow

One of the intriguing quirks of financial history is that the Dow Jones Index has become the benchmark of the health of the US stockmarket and by extension a metric everyone else is fascinated in.It is interesting that the Dow has become this because of its strange mechanism of calculation and is somewhat anachronistic view…

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Growing older with health and vitality

The preservation of skeletal muscle mass and strength with advancing age are, we propose, critical aspects of ageing with health and vitality. Physical inactivity and poor nutrition are known to accelerate the gradual age-related decline in muscle mass and strength—sarcopenia—however, both are subject to modification. The main purpose of this review is to present the…

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Not Much Faith

This begs the question for fundamental style investors – if the people who run the company wont buy it why should you? Few top executives followed Jamie Dimon’s example this year in buying company stock. Insiders at a majority of S&P 500 Index companies didn’t purchase any of their firm’s shares in the open market…

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Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That…

  Have you seen that funny viral video with that expressive, confident, funny lady? If not, you’ve been missing out. It particularly grabbed Louise’s attention. She says: “After watching this again, for the hundredth time, and giggling, it got me thinking…You know that this year will be a duplicate of last year, unless you change…

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Grumpy Old Bastards

Interesting piece that looks at the precision of judgement as one ages, in this instance precision refers to the confidence that is brought to a given decision. It turns out that as we age we become more confident in believing we know the truth. This leads to a somewhat intractable problem of both overconfidence and…

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Well Here It Comes

In line with the notion of January predicts the direction if the not the quanta of the year ahead here is a rundown of the January gains or losses for various markets. Make of it what you will….if anything….. What is more interesting to me is what I perceive to be a dislocation between perception…

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Index Correlations Again

I recently posted this table of index price correlations. Its a fairly simple table that  looks at the degree to which indices follow one another in their general pattern of movement. As you would expect indices that are closely related share a very high correlation. For example the Dow and the S&P500 share a price…

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