LATEST BLOGS

Going Nowhere

I wrote a little while ago about the need to be aware of the history of markets and their propensity to go nowhere for significant periods of time. This sort of saga is unfolding in the US with their markets making no real gain for some 18 months. The US seems to be range bound…

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ASX 200 Yearly Returns

I have cobbled together a few dodgy sources to build a 35 year graph of the total returns (includes dividends) for the ASX 200. The S&P/ASX 200 only came into being in 2000 so some of the data is of a composite nature. The thing that is always interesting about this is how little damage…

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S&P500 Yearly Returns

I was mucking around with the yearly returns on the S&P500 – I wanted to see how the returns were distributed and I got the graph below. The graph covers almost a century of data and told me something very interesting – there are actually fewer down years than I had imagined. I didnt really…

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Why It’s Hard to Recognize the Unlikely

The most unusual coincidence in my life took place when I flew from Boston, my home, to Chicago to meet Scott Isenberg, the new editor assigned to revise a statistics textbook I had authored a few years earlier. We were having dinner at a restaurant overlooking Lake Michigan, and Scott began to talk nostalgically about…

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When Growth Stalls

I am in no way a fundamental analyst – in fact as a skill set for investing I regard it as irrelevant and an example of being seduced by your own narrative fallacy.  However, I am in business and I am intrigued as to why some businesses stall, whither and die. I came across the…

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Long Play

McCartney has worked so hard at seeming an ordinary bloke that it is easy to miss the least ordinary and least bloke-ish thing about him: the magnitude of his melodic gift. A genius for melody is a strange, surprisingly isolated talent, and doesn’t have much to do with a broader musical gift for composition; Mozart…

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The Cure For Fear

Kindt, 48, has devoted her career to understanding human fear and memory. She has built her own laboratory, published in the most prestigious scientific journals, and developed a simple treatment she hopes might one day help millions of people who suffer from PTSD, phobias, and other anxiety disorders. In her clinic, she has seen it…

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Bikes Again

Last week I wrote about the problems people had drawing an item they were often intimately familiar with.  The study I cited was used as a mechanism to highlight the fact that we actually know less than we think we do. Coincidentally Gianluca Gimini an artist has been collecting images of bike drawings since 2009 and…

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Do What You Say You Are Going To Do

Today has been clean out day for part of my email archive and as usual it is filled with the detritus that you pick up over the months.  But this clean out is slightly different because it had a distinct theme, this folder was full of emails from people who were promising to develop stuff,…

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You Cant Keep A Good Bubble Down.

Jeremy He started pouring his savings into commodities last month after losing money in China’s stock rout and deciding that returns from his WMPs were too low. The 25-year-old employee at a multinational trade company in Shanghai set up a joint account with his friend to trade futures on rebar, coal and cotton, making as…

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A Long Term View

It has been some time since I took a really long term view of a market. It tends not to be part of my trading vernacular simply because of the time frames I trade, to my way of thinking data drifts off into the irrelevant beyond a certain point. However, as a student of the…

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