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We may be seeing the Dunning-Kruger effect in groups. The Dunning-Kruger effect reflects a persistent bias in how we assess our own specific competence in an area. The effect is often summarized (usually for the purpose of snark on an internet exchange) as, “dumb people are too dumb to realize how dumb they…
Interesting piece from the ABC’s Health Report on the importance of checklists. The concept I have always found interesting is the notion of a time out before doing anything, even when you feel a time pressure. As traders we often feel compelled to act as quickly because of the thought of missing out.
Howler monkeys are the loudest land animals on Earth, capable of bellowing atvolumes of 140 decibels, which is on the level of gunshots or firecrackers. Not surprisingly, male howlers frequently use this power to advertise their sexual fitness, catcalling females with their ear-splitting roars. But in a beautiful twist of expectations, scientists have now found…
One of the more interesting things about following hedge funds is the behaviour of those who run them. At various times they will get into wonderfully childish slanging matches with one another that generally take on the following dialogue. Hedge Fund Loser One – The stock you own is bullshit… Hedge fund Loser Two –…
If one wants to be active, one mustn’t be afraid to do something wrong sometimes, not afraid to lapse into some mistakes. To be good — many people think that they’ll achieve it by doing no harm — and that’s a lie… That leads to stagnation, to mediocrity. Just slap something on it when you…
Why would anyone spend thousands of dollars on a Prada handbag, an Armani suit, or a Rolex watch? If you really need to know the time, buy a cheap Timex or just look at your phone and send the money you have saved to Oxfam. Certain consumer behaviors seem irrational, wasteful, even evil. What drives…
I am always surprised that people are still trading the domestic equities market. Whilst, many such as fund managers can be forgiven for being trapped both within the fallacy of their own narrative and their inherent laziness, there are people who should know better. Below I have generated some relative comparisons between our market and…
Paul Offit likes to tell a story about how his wife, pediatrician Bonnie Offit, was about to give a child a vaccination when the kid was struck by a seizure. Had she given the injection a minute sooner, Paul Offit says, it would surely have appeared as though the vaccine had caused the seizure and…
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