Although many people do it, making forecasts about how financial markets will fare in 2023 is an entirely pointless endeavour. What we can predict with some confidence, however, is how investors will behave – that doesn’t change much. So, what will we all be doing in 2023? More here – Behavioural Investment
If he’s super rich, he must be a super genius. That conclusion is a cognitive mistake many continue to make when they encounter a seemingly incongruous state of affairs, such as Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, behaving like an irrational idiot. And yet, behave like an idiot he does, day after day, a public jester who…
Throughout the history of mathematics, quite a few mathematical problems have achieved celebrity status outside the circle of mathematicians. Famous problems such as squaring the circle or proving Fermat’s last theorem have intrigued thousands of people over the centuries. But almost no mathematical problem has been as fiercely and widely debated as the Monty Hall…
David Walsh and Zeljko Ranogajec rose from humble Hobart university students to become two of the most successful professional gamblers in history. Their betting syndicate turns over literally billions of dollars each year and is recognised as one of the world’s biggest gambling operations. Both David Walsh and Zeljko Ranogajec are private individuals who rarely…
Expensive investor mistakes come in two forms. We can either lose money slowly or quickly. Slow losses are small and compound over time – largely unnoticed – growing into a major cost; these can be through high fees or persistent performance chasing. Rapid losses are far more dramatic and are often a result of us…
The Mentor Program is a 6-month, repeat-for-free, comprehensive training course for traders of all levels – and our results speak for themselves. When we opened up for bookings for the Mentor Program, there was a scramble. A flurry. A crazed run at the gate as people came on board. You are going to want ‘in’…
The conspiracy theory writes itself. Start looking, and you’ll notice how many New York Times crossword puzzles are co-constructed (the preferred term for what most people would refer to as co-written) by a professional crossword constructor and someone with a day job—it’s hard not to see all the artists, web developers, professors, and other titles that imply…
With the US Dollar Index finishing down 4.1% last week I was curious to see what impact similar declines had on the index in the past. So I fired up Excel and downloaded some data, searched for weeks where the index had closed down 3% or more and got the following table – What…
Most fields are a hierarchy of truths with big ideas at the top and laws, rules, and finer details branching off below them. Viewing ideas in isolation, without recognizing the family tree of where they came from, gives a distorted view of how a field works and can overcomplicate what are often simple answers. Beliefs…
In his new book on decision making, Ed Smith, who was responsible for the selection of the England Men’s cricket team between 2018 and 2021, discusses the challenges of innovative thinking.[i] He quotes poker player Caspar Berry: “Whenever someone innovates in business or in life, they almost inevitably do so by accepting a negative metric that…
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