The Psychology of Prediction

…..I believe in prediction. I think you have to in order to get out of bed in the morning. But prediction is hard. Either you know that or you’re in denial about it. A lot of the reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of…

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This Is How To Rewire Your Brain For Happiness

Someone compliments you and you think, “They don’t mean it.” Something good happens and you hear, “I don’t deserve this.” You’re meeting new people and it’s, “They won’t like me.” And you usually accept those words because they’re coming from inside your head. It’s like the horror movie where the calls from the killer are…

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Is WeWork A Fraud

I offer the piece below not with any knowledge of WeWork outside of knowing that it is a serviced office group that is trying to pass itself off as a technology company but rather as an example of how brokers, analysts and commentators can become wedded to a narrative and that this marriage can be…

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Starting Date Is Everything.

I have written before that starting date is everything when we are looking at comparing the performance of instruments. Fudging starting dates is a favourite trick of fund managers when trying to make their fund look good, they simply hunt around for a starting date that makes them look good and then runs with that.…

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A Born Natural?

NO-ONE WAS ‘born a natural’ at trading. It’s something you have to work at every day. You must chip away the rough edges to reveal the perfect trading plan. Sand back the psychological misadventures, before you can glide into profits. You end up falling in love with the messy process that trading is. Whenever I…

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WE ALL LOSE OUR way sometimes. Even after you’ve nailed this trading game, and you’ve come out on top, sometimes it seems like the universe likes to screw with you and make you feel like life is a big Jenga game. The only constant with this is YOU. You’re the one in the screenplay of…

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Push from the Front

MANY YEARS AGO, when I had a ‘real job’, I used to run a department where a bunch of reporters would call up companies and update their credit histories. Graduates, straight out of business school. Young, hopeful, and enthusiastic. A top entry job, with a bright future assured. I remember I was holding an interview…

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