Dow 17,000 and an idiot magnet

I dont really need to say much about this.   And to put the strength of the US market into context this is the S&P500 monthly.  However, there is always some idiot who thinks they know better than the market. Remember my view – the market is simply a voting machine, it votes on which…

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Predictions From The RBA

Whilst puddling around today I heard on the radio that Glenn Stevens the head of the RBA had issued a dire warning for just about everything. I have to admit I wasn’t paying attention because this is the same group that has predicted 17 of our past 3 recessions but I decided to look up…

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I recently received an email from someone who should have known better because attached to the email was a brokers report. The report told me I should buy NAB because it had under performed its counterparts. So not being one to take anything a broker says at face value I decided to check for myself.…

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That’s So Random: Why We Persist in Seeing Streaks

This piece coincides nicely with a book I have just finished reading  called The Importability Principle by David J Hand which disappointingly is actually quite dull. Although it does do a good job of explaining the inevitability of single people winning lotteries multiple times. Get enough people doing the same thing for long enough and…

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I Am A Winner

I have gotten a few of these in the past few days – they seem to be slipping through the old spam filter. Clearly as a business idea this sort of thing works, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.      

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Why not even exercise will undo the harm of sitting all day

A large review recently published in The Journal of the National Cancer Institute confirms what we’ve been hearing for years: Sitting can be fatal. It’s been linked to cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. In this latest meta-analysis, Daniela Schmid and Michael F. Leitzmann of the University of Regensburg in Germany analyzed 43 observational studies, amounting to more than 4 million people’s answers to questions…

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Well….I am still long the Dow, boring that it is. The interesting thing about markets at or around new highs is the emotional problems they seem to bring. Traders struggle with the notion of buying something that is higher than it has been in recent times simply because we have inbuilt cultural notions about what…

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Pick Your Own Fight

Last year I had the pleasure of training with Dan Inosanto. For those who dont know the name he was a friend and colleague of Bruce Lee’s. We spent an afternoon listening to his wisdom and getting everything i could from someone who was 77 and still in wonderful condition. During one of the breaks…

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Its Friday

Time to continue the World Cup theme – Some back-of-the-envelope maths regarding Luis Suarez: according to Wikipedia, he has played in 363 club league, cup and friendly matches since breaking through into the Nacional senior team in the 2005/06 season. He’s also played 78 times for the Uruguay national team. He has bitten three opposition…

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Flash Boys and Investors

Lengthy but interesting. I have thus far resisted writing anything about Michael Lewis’s book “Flash Boys”, in part because I typically don’t want to waste time on timely issues (instead focusing on topics that are of long-term interest), although it has been a real exercise in self-constraint because there have been few books published in…

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Behavioural economics and public policy

So popular is the field that behavioural economics is now often misapplied as a catch-all term to refer to almost anything that’s cool in popular social science, from the storycraft of Malcolm Gladwell, author ofThe Tipping Point (2000), to the empirical investigations of Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics (2005). Yet, as with any success story, the backlash has…

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