Lessons from Norway’s SWF
PS: Depressing to think that Norway’s SWF is ten times the size of our Future Fund despite Australia being one of the most resource rich countries in the world. Chalk another failure up to stupid narrow-minded self-interested politicians.
Extend Gratitude Beyond Platitudes
You know that blur of movement on Christmas morning when children meet presents and presents meet children, scraps of wrapping paper fly into the air and float down, confetti-style, all over the living room? Five minutes later, the presents are all unwrapped, the children sit panting, and everyone wonders what to do next. It does…
In a Distracted World, Solitude Is a Competitive Advantage
“Always remember: Your focus determines your reality.” Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn shares this advice with Anakin Skywalker in Star Wars, but in our hyper-distracted work world, it’s advice that we all need to hear. Technology has undoubtedly ushered in progress in a myriad of ways. But this same force has also led to work environments that inundate people with a relentless…
The Year So Far
I am going to do a more extensive year in review in the next day or so but here is a primer.
There Is Always A Cost
So I am sitting here in my local cafe pondering the wisdom of my first serious pool session after a surgery induced hiatus, the two words that spring instantly to mind are f#$cken and horrible. There is always a cost to everything and it is something we tend to ignore – it applies from the…
I Love Survivor Bias
There are a few things that always catch novice market commentators out – little things such as volatility, narrative fallacies and one of my all-time favourites – survivor bias. The chart below is lifted from an article titled – These are the 20 best-performing stocks of the past decade, and some of them will surprise…
Why Your Brain Needs Exercise
Another reason to get your arse off the couch. In the 1990s researchers announced a series of discoveries that would upend a bedrock tenet of neuroscience. For decades the mature brain was understood to be incapable of growing new neurons. Once an individual reached adulthood, the thinking went, the brain began losing neurons rather than…
Whats a Dividend Worth?
One of the things that is often overlooked in trading is the role that dividends play in wealth creation. I have posted before about the role of DRP schemes in bulking up returns over the long term and since it is a blisteringly hot day in Melbourne (actually too friggen hot to get in the…
Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?
Quick answer … No To answer this question, we develop new testing methods for identifying superior forecasting skills in settings with arbitrarily many forecasters, outcome variables, and time periods. Our methods allow us to address if any economists had superior forecasting skills for any variables or at any point in time while carefully controlling for…
There Is No Magic
Humans are drawn to magical thinking for a variety of reasons, in part, it gives order to where there is chaos and we are very poor at sitting with chaos. It also separates us from others so our belief in our form of magic is a form of tribalism – we have access to an…
A Reminder of the Slow Grind
Just a reminder of the slow grind in the local market since the GFC and a reminder that you need to look beyond the local market.
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