LATEST BLOGS

Prediction Of The Day

Stupid prediction from a soft article in the AFR today. UBS is forecasting the price of gold will remain above $US1500 ($2169) through the middle of 2020, rising to $US1650 an ounce by June 2022. JPMorgan is also expecting an increase, forecasting the gold price will remain higher than $US1500 until at least the end…

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When Something Works Its Obvious

One of the things with biomedical research of any genre is that so much of any benefit can only be seen with complex and powerful statistical tools. And more often than not these tools are applied to studies that have taken place in a laboratory on populations of mice that have been specially bred for…

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The Happiness Ruse

In 1920, the American psychologist John B Watson published the results of one of the more ethically dubious scholarly articles of the past century. Along with Rosalie Rayner, a 21-year-old graduate student at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, where he taught, Watson aimed to instil a specific fear in an otherwise normal baby. Until then,…

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I Remember Another One

I am back on the theme of idiots in this business. At a conference overseas many years ago LB was talking to a group of female traders who mentioned that they were always losing money trading options. So she enquired a bit deeper. It turns out that the strategy they had been told to use…

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Inside the mind of the bullshitter: Science Weekly podcast

This is somewhat appropriate given my ranting and raving this morning…. In 1986, philosopher Harry G Frankfurt wrote: “One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit.” This was the opening line of his seminal essay (later a book), On Bullshit, in which Frankfurt put forward his theory on the subject.…

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FFS Can Someone Tell Them How Stupid That Sounds

On a bit of a tear this morning with stupid things I have heard and been sent recently. I had heard someone say that 50%pa is a solid achievable return…..in what f^$ken universe is that realistic. Consider that table below in which I have taken a starting capital of $1,000,000 and compounded it at 50%…

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Do You DRP?

I am prone to saying that markets are very generous if you allow them to be – the unfortunate thing is that most traders/investors regard the markets as hostile. This perception of hostility generates a raft of negative emotional responses to every slight perturbation the market might make. This in turn hampers their capacity to…

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Superannuation Again……

Whilst I was away travelling I checked into my LinkedIn account and was greeted with the usual amount of spam and rubbish job offerings but in typical LinkedIn fashion, I was bombarded by ads extolling the virtues of Australian Super. You can imagine my delight when they dropped in an ad with the tagline Proven…

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Navy SEALs Use These 4 Psychology Tricks

I was recently keynoting at a company when the presenter before me (an ex-Navy SEAL) took the stage to discuss the importance of succeeding under extreme pressure. It was a topical comment, as this particular company was about to go through an intense period. He shared an training overview video from the Navy SEALs detailing a particularly onerous part of…

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