If there is one thing that this current pandemic has reinforced in me it is that the default setting for the majority of people is moron, from idiots on social media telling us that they predicted a crash five years ago, to conspiracy theorists saying this is just an attempt to short the market and…
If you need further convincing that the notion of just buy was a silly one then consider this chart of the Nikkei. Almost 32 years in drawdown – you need a compelling reason to reenter the market after a savage correction and the notion of just buy is not compelling enough.
Trading is a strange profession in that almost all of the traditions, habits and culture surrounding it are unique to the trader. You are free to make up your own beliefs and methods and unleash them upon the market. The end result of this is that most people go off half-cocked. You only have to…
The other day I posted this equity curve that had appeared on social media. This curve is clearly fake because it resembles the climb profile of a QANTAS 737 leaving Melbourne on its way to Sydney – that and the fact that it claims a 97% win rate. Real equity curves display volatility as wins…
You have to have some sympathy for those strategists working at asset managers and investment banks who spent the tail end of last year writing lengthy outlook pieces for 2020. Although the tomes produced always have an inbuilt redundancy; the onset and spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has upended all forecasts in a particularly dramatic and…
Whenever I see a report on the spread of coronavirus it is generally accompanied by a variation of the graphic below. Giant red circles encompassing massive areas of the globe. People see this and quite naturally freak out because it appears as if the world is engulfed in a runaway contagion. What is being shown…
One of the things that social media has brought about is not only widespread dissemination of uneducated and frankly stupid opinions but also the spreading of outright lies. Below is a copy of an equity curve that appeared on one of my pages. Pay close attention to not only the curve which is the thing…
A long term historical perspective of the previous week. Click the pic for a big version.
I noticed the following headline whilst having brekky at my local. You can read the original piece here in the Melbourne Age. Unfortunately, I would consider most of it wrong since the way you tell when markets have bottomed is to open a chart and look back six months and go….there’s the bottom. The only…
One of the things that scream incompetent is the inability to distinguish between what is a relative figure and what is an absolute figure. You most often see this sort of idiocy in the reporting of the risks associated with various events such as diet or drug interventions. For example, consider this statement – eating…
According to the popular press, Australians are racing out to buy hand sanitiser and face masks to protect them from the coming apocalypse. I do wish someone would tell them that neither will help. However, as someone who is fascinated by group behaviour hence my belief that Charles P Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is…
I'm your go-to-expert for all things related to our exceptional Trading Game Mentor Program. So don't hold back, ask me questions about the course. And remember, being patient is key as my AI bot skills need time to find you the right answer.
Also, don't forget to register for Priority Notification for the Mentor Program and get a whole heap of free trading resources.
To get that done, go to this link:
https://www.tradinggame.com/priority
