LATEST BLOGS

Grumpy Old Bastards

Interesting piece that looks at the precision of judgement as one ages, in this instance precision refers to the confidence that is brought to a given decision. It turns out that as we age we become more confident in believing we know the truth. This leads to a somewhat intractable problem of both overconfidence and…

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Well Here It Comes

In line with the notion of January predicts the direction if the not the quanta of the year ahead here is a rundown of the January gains or losses for various markets. Make of it what you will….if anything….. What is more interesting to me is what I perceive to be a dislocation between perception…

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Index Correlations Again

I recently posted this table of index price correlations. Its a fairly simple table that  looks at the degree to which indices follow one another in their general pattern of movement. As you would expect indices that are closely related share a very high correlation. For example the Dow and the S&P500 share a price…

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Index Correlations

For my own curiosity I decided to have a quick look at the price correlations of a handful of world indices. Those correlations that are below 0.5 I have coloured red. As expected most share a positive correlation with the only true diversification coming from the Shanghai Composite. This does pose a conundrum for index…

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Apathy As The Default Human Setting

If you are a fan of human history the impression you get of our progress over the years is a relentless march forward. We evolved on the plains of Africa as small and weak primates with very little to distinguish us from other animals. Deep time and the relentless random pressure of evolution changed that…

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Why asset bubbles are a part of the human condition

IN THESE UNCERTAIN economic times, we’d all like a guaranteed investment. Here’s one: it pays a 24-cent dividend every four weeks for 60 weeks, 15 dividends in all. Then it disappears. Unlike a bond, this security has no redemption value. It simply provides guaranteed dividends. It involves no tricky derivatives or unknown risks. And it…

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