QOTD
The signature of mediocrity is chronic inconsistency. Jim Collins – Great by Choice
We Are Alive
Rock tours generally have a theme: a band’s coltish arrival, a new style or look, a reunion, a new set of songs, a political moment. Springsteen was salting the show with the political material from “Wrecking Ball,” but the most vivid theme on this tour was to be time passing, age, death, and, if Springsteen…
Why Too Much Data Disables Your Decision Making
Quick, think back to a major decision. You know, the kind that compelled you to read everything on a topic and lead you to spend hours devouring every last scrap of data. How’d that work out for you? We like to think that more information drives smarter decisions; that the more details we absorb, the…
Two Surprisingly Related Items
Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…
How To Win At Forecasting
I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…
John Von Neumann Documentary
This one is for serious geeks only. In terms of mental horsepower there are a handful of people like Von Neumann and then there is the rest of us.
Ten Minutes With Tate – The Narrative Fallacy
Some additional references – Yachtman Bets BlackBerry Can Survive Market-Share Plunge RIMS Market Share Slips Some More The New Blackberry Debacle Worldwide Market Share For Smartphones
So You Think You Can Value A Company Do You?
I must admit having fun with value investors is a somewhat akin to shooting fish in a barrel The hubris required to believe that you and you alone actually know what something is worth and that the market will believe you is extraordinary. Consider the case of HP’s acquisition of software maker Autonomy, they thought…
Asian Markets
I am planning on doing a longer piece on the heterogeneous nature of Asian markets as a function of their cultural and economic background. In the meantime I needed to generate a chart of the comparative performance of the Nikkei, the Hang Seng and the doggy Shanghai Composite over the past year.
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