One of the joys of trading is that you dont really have to be a grown up in the sense that you dont need to go to a defined place of work, put up with other people or endure the childishness of office politics. However, running your own business does bring with it some responsibilities…

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AUD – A Study In Going Sideways

I often tell people to keep a simple file with nothing more than price and a few straight lines. Unfortunately, most interpret this as cover your charts with  what looks to be a map of the Melbourne tram network. It is surprising how much information price by itself can convey to you.

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Surprise, Surprise – CEO’s Are Paid Too Much

I have long suspected that the majority of CEO’s in the Western world, particularly in the US and Australia are vastly overpaid in terms of the value they bring to both shareholders and communities. Many years ago i looked at the share price performance of companies that had the highest paid CEO’s – at the…

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This is my WTF moment for this week – possibly this year. Did you know that in Arizona it is illegal to massage a horse without a licence.We are talking about therapeutic massage here, not the you have been out on the trail too long and that filly looks mighty fetching in this light. Interestingly,…

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Stupid Headline Of The Day

I know I should not be amazed at the limited grasp of market reality that afflicts both financial journalists and fund managers but this one is a corker. Five-year bull run continues “Given a five-year bull run it is impossible to argue stocks look cheap, but the market is not necessarily too high,” MLC Investment…

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Oshi Shinobu

I was cleaning out some old stuff of mine after finally getting the painters out of my house and I came across an old battered and weathered  t-shirt of  mine that had the following kanji characters written on it. For those whose Japanese is a little rusty it breaks down to the expression Osu. Osu…

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Variant Perception And Problem Solving

Whenever, you take a position in a given instrument you are by definition doing something that is different from someone else in the same circumstances. Consider the chart below of Apple. I could make the compelling case that the stock has broken out. It has made a new high, broken out of resistance and has…

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What Kills Us? How We Understand Risk.

Humans by and large are appalling natural statisticians, we continually misunderstand the risk of certain events occurring. I have friends who wont swim at the beach because they are frightened of sharks by will drive for two hours to get to the beach and then sit on the sand.    

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How Stocks React To Geopolitical Uncertainty

With the Russians playing funny buggers in the Ukraine I came across the following table from the looks at the response of the market to a series of shocks. I was surprised to see that the Cuban missile crisis only dropped the market 2.7% .I would have thought that the prospect of Armageddon would…

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