If you work in the investment industry then you must have a view. Always. About everything. When will inflation peak? Will the Fed pivot? How will Japanese equities fare over the next six months? Is Amazon expensive? Does this fund manager have skill? If we don’t have an opinion then we either lack knowledge or…
In my previous market wrap, I posted a chart similar to the one below highlighting the current action in Bitcoin. Given that I find compression patterns with declining volatility interesting it’s worth spending a little bit more time analysing what exactly is happening with price at present. However all these things have to be viewed…
Cryptocurrencies may have crashed this year but they remain a digital cash-machine for one potent constituency: hackers. At least $718 million has been stolen so far in October alone, taking the gross tally for the year past $3 billion and putting 2022 on course to be a record for the total value hacked, according to…
Traders quoting annualised returns need I say more. Well, I probably should, one of the things that is most annoying to me is traders who will take a return from a given stock let’s say over a month, and then annualise that return to predict what they’re going to make in the coming year. Intriguingly…
One of the things that has always amazed me about financial markets is the apparent lack of numeracy I see in many of its participants. As an example consider the table below which looks at gains made in the subsequent years by the S&P500 when it has been down 25% or worse in a given…
From the time of Aristotle through to the 1500s, the dominant model of the universe had the sun, planets, and stars orbiting around the Earth. This simple model, however, did not match what could be seen in the skies. Venus appears in the evening or morning. It never crosses the night sky as we would…
Much of the focus on the dramatic and unprecedented sell-off in gilt markets this week has been centred on the technical factors that led to an intervention from the Bank of England, potentially worth £65bn. Whilst the tribulations of the Liability Driven Investment strategies used by pension schemes are both fascinating and concerning, these periods…
Most traders jump first and then build their parachutes. They trade using intuition and tips without a firm trading plan. If there’s anything the markets have taught us over the past couple of years it’s that treating investing and trading as a business is essential. But just how do you do this? In this exciting…
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