US Dollar Index Decline

With the US Dollar Index finishing down 4.1% last week I was curious to see what impact similar declines had on the index in the past. So I fired up Excel and downloaded some data, searched for weeks where the index had closed down 3% or more and got the following table –   What…

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Big Beliefs

Most fields are a hierarchy of truths with big ideas at the top and laws, rules, and finer details branching off below them. Viewing ideas in isolation, without recognizing the family tree of where they came from, gives a distorted view of how a field works and can overcomplicate what are often simple answers. Beliefs…

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Something Has to Hurt

In his new book on decision making, Ed Smith, who was responsible for the selection of the England Men’s cricket team between 2018 and 2021, discusses the challenges of innovative thinking.[i] He quotes poker player Caspar Berry: “Whenever someone innovates in business or in life, they almost inevitably do so by accepting a negative metric that…

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What Do Bull Markets Look Like?

Not like the current equities market that’s for sure. Bul markets have a series of unique internal dynamics that drive them along – the most obvious of these is that the stocks within a given index continue to make new highs. These new highs are manifested in the index by it trending up. The chart…

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Meet the Woman Teaching the Psychology of Survival

Kate Baecher and her mountaineering group were being guided over a dangerous traverse in Europe a few years ago when a climber in the party ahead of them fell hundreds of feet to her death. Baecher, a Sydney-based psychologist, military veteran, and avid mountaineer with a background helping people perform in high-stress situations, kept her cool…

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US Dollar Index and The Idiocy of Some Sites

Quite rightly much of the chatter regarding currencies this week has centred around the goings on in crypto clown land. In the real world away from the land of magic beans and disappearing accounts The US Dollar Index has been breaking down. It looks as if at least in the short term that the exceptional…

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Where Will The Market Go Next?

No idea – now that we have gotten that out of the way it is interesting to look at two competing narratives that have arisen as a result of last night’s action on U.S. markets. The first interpretation is given by the table below which looks at the performance of the S&P 500 post any…

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The Mentor Program is Officially Open

  When we opened up for booking for the Mentor Program, there was a scramble. A flurry. A crazed run at the gate as people came on board. The Mentor Program is a 6-month, repeat-for-free, comprehensive training course for traders of all levels – and our results speak for themselves. You are going to want…

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Bitcoin Next Stop 12k ?

The interesting feature of highly speculative issues such as BTC is that in a very short space of time you were able to observe a large range of maladaptive trader behaviours. I can guarantee that when I initially posted my original chart showing that BTC was in congestion but was also in a volatility squeeze…

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Process and Outcome

Success in any endeavour relies upon a triad of components process measurement and outcome. Traders, as a rule, have a tendency to focus on the outcome not the process this is understandable because the process is boring whereas the outcome enables us to daydream about a different future. This daydream is obviously more attractive and…

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