LATEST BLOGS

An Antidote to the Age of Anxiety

If to enjoy even an enjoyable present we must have the assurance of a happy future, we are “crying for the moon.” We have no such assurance. The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty, and to the best of our knowledge every one of us is going to suffer and die.…

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Is the Market Overcooked?

In the little excursion I had into the notion of the market being overvalued I visited the idea of the percentage of stocks above certain moving average being a sign of the market being overheated. The thinking behind this is that if a substantial number of stocks are above a given moving average then this…

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10 Top Hedge Fund Industry Trends for 2014

I subscribe to an online newsletter All About Alpha that looks at alternative investment and like most of these online newsletters they seem to be cheerleaders for the hedge fund sector. So it was with some interest that I scanned the article 10 Top Hedge Fund Industry Trends for 2014 – interestingly not one of the…

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Bias Series Part Four – Attentional Bias

Consider the chart below.   Leaving aside my thoughts about organic food the chart deliberately confuses causation with correlation. Such confusion is the bane of statistician lives and it plays a role in our investing since in many ways it is the bedrock upon which people build their stories or rationalisations about he market. During…

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Metal Prices

If you are struggling to find metals prices, particularly some of the more obscure ones such as cobalt, magnesium and molybdenum check out InvestmentMine – it has a good collection of free charts and prices.

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8 Limbs Of Life – Life Of A Nuk Muay

I have always been a fan of Muay Thai both as spectator sport and an endevour. It seems odd to say but there is something quintessentially Thai and Muay Thai – it is such a reflection of the people and so deeply engrained in their national psyche. Attending a Muay Thai fight in Thailand should…

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Bias Series Part Three – Confirmation Bias

Confirmation is an insidious little malady that afflicts everyone at some stage. Our natural desire as members of a herd is to find people who agree with our point of view. In trading this takes the extreme form of overweighting opinions that match ours and underweighting those that disagree with us. The natural tendency when…

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Truly Ordinary

I have to admit that over the past few years I have found the performance of the local market to suck big time. I am somewhat comforted by two things. I am not alone and the internet grants me access to every market in the world. If you want to know how poor the local…

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Bias Series Part Two – Gamblers Fallacy

One of the more interesting things about winter in Australia is the return of the various winter sporting codes. This is interesting because it heralds the return of the uniquely Australian obsession with provincial sports and a breathless sporting coverage that attempts to give the impression that people who kick or chase an inflated piece…

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