Following on from this post – Freakanomics Radio has an hour long special on the pointlessness of predictions. It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses…

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move in a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what next big movement is going to be – up or down. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear…

Superstition appears to arise from situations of uncertainty (Burger & Lynn, 2005; Felson & Gmelch, 1979; Vyse, 1997). Skinner (1948) was one of the first to document’ superstition’ as a way of describing the behaviors pigeons showed when reinforced with food on a fixed time interval. The pigeons were presented with a situation in which…

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move in a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what next big movement is going to be – up or down. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear…

Doco here

Whilst a variety of peanuts bang on about how magic Fibonacci numbers enable one to predict the market his true contribution to the West has been lost in a plethora of pseudo science,  gibberish and fluff that would not be out of place in a women’s magazine.

All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.   The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is…

If you have taken the time to read Michael Lewis’ The Big Short you will be familiar with the name Michael Burry. Burry is a former neurologist turned hedge fund manager who was one of the few individuals who foresaw the collapse in the CDO market. This is a Bloomberg piece on Burry and the…

If you have taken the time to read Michael Lewis’ The Big Short you will be familiar with the name Michael Burry. Burry is a former neurologist turned hedge fund manager who was one of the few individuals who foresaw the collapse in the CDO market. This is a Bloomberg piece on Burry and the…

The things they find on pillow cases…….