It Worked Perfectly Yesterday

I have witnessed a disturbing trend in the industry of late: the over-optimisation or curve fitting of trading systems. This practice involves tweaking the parameters of a system to fit the historical data, often resulting in unrealistic and inflated performance metrics. Optimisation is a dangerous and misguided approach that can lead to disastrous outcomes for…

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Bitcoin Is Suddenly Interesting.

Will BTC change the world – probably not but it doesn’t mean that everyones favourite delusion cannot be profitable. At present BTC has done something interesting in breaking up on a weekly chart as shown below. What is also interesting is that on the daily chart, you have a compression box where prices are squeezing…

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Whatever Happened To Groupon?

In August 2010, Forbes called the Chicago-based platform the “fastest growing company ever.” The following year, it IPO’d at a $17.8B market cap. Today? Groupon is worth just $103m — a 99.4% plummet from its IPO. And though it does maintain ~14m active users, it had 83m+ subscribers in 2011, per TechCrunch. More here – theHUSTLE. PS: If Google ever knocks on…

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If You Are An Analyst AI Is Coming For Your Job

Whenever a new piece of technology is introduced into the marketplace, particularly one that is quite disruptive it is always difficult for people to gauge its potential impact on the future. Referring back to 2007 when the iPhone was introduced and it was roundly criticised as a solution in search of a problem, in fact,…

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The Physiology of a 24-Hour Mountain-Bike Race

When people say, “You can’t outrun a bad diet,” I smile and nod. It’s perfectly true, in a holistic sense. Exercise and diet are two different things, with separate effects on your health and performance. You can’t automatically compensate for deficiencies in one area by being extra good at the other, any more than donating…

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What’s your macro say?

  Have you checked out what the markets are doing? How do you know whether it’s a good time to get involved? The easiest way is to use a macro filter. Learn what my macro filter says at the moment. C’mon… you know you want to see it. Have a look. Currently, my macro filter…

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Speaking Of Disconnect Between Pay and Performance

This is the house Adam Levinson founder of the now defunct Graticule hedge fund bought. And this is the performance of his hedge fund that enabled him to buy this house. Source Yahoo Finance The eagle eyed among you will note that whilst this is a macro hedge fund that trades all manner of things…

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I want to make rules, not follow them

The nice people at MoneyMagazine published one of Louise’s articles this month, called “I want to make rules, not follow them.” This is what they said: “A devastating medical condition set Louise Bedford, author of five books on the stockmarket, podcaster and behavioural finance expert, on a new wealth-creating path.” Get prepared for a huge…

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How A Simple Free Chart Could Have Saved SVB

One of the great myths you have, when you are young, is that adults are reasonably competent and vaguely skilled at what they are supposed to be doing. As you grow into adulthood yourself you are quickly disavowed of this naive belief as you realised that the majority of adults in the majority of roles…

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How to Find Joy in Your Sisyphean Existence

Sisyphus, the king of Ephyra, was renowned in Greek mythology for his ingenuity; indeed, so clever was he that he cheated death twice, angering the gods. They took their revenge by condemning Sisyphus to eternal torment in the underworld: He had to roll a huge boulder up a hill. When he reached the top, the stone would…

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