I gave a little it talk last night on complexity within markets and the question arose in the chat afterwards as to how do you know when a trader/advisor/etc is starting to panic about the market. I have a short quick and very complete answer which is based upon my own observation over the past…
The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…
It may seem liberating to live in a land of infinite choices, but research in decision-making suggests otherwise. In a classic study, Stanford researchers set up shop at an upscale grocery store chosen for its “extraordinary selection” of items, including 300 types of jam. One Saturday afternoon, they set up a sampling booth with 24 jams;…
A new study from Georgia Tech researchers to be published in the November issue of the journal Acta Psychologica has found that, aside from the basic physical benefits of lifting weights, pumping iron for just 20 minutes a day can seriously boost your memory. That’s right: 20 minutes reps of bi and tri curls each day may help…
“When I won this, my grandma, who lives in Fargo, North Dakota, wanted to see it. I was coming around so I decided I’d bring my Nobel Prize. You would think that carrying around a Nobel Prize would be uneventful, and it was uneventful, until I tried to leave Fargo with it, and went through…
If you’re living in Lebanon you need to know the right people to get ahead, but in Uganda, sheer luck is important. That’s what people in those countries say are the keys to success. A Pew report released Thursday reached the conclusion that people in developing economies are more likely to think the next generation will be…
Due to popular demand (who would have thunk) we have had to move to a new venue. The new venue is Novotel Level 6, 270 Collins Street
Since this presentation is fairly chart heavy I have converted the slide deck to a pdf and dropped it in below.
I thought it would be interesting to graph last weeks performance of a few markets .
When Ronaldo da Costa broke the finish-line tape at the 1998 Berlin Marathon, he began dancing a samba. He deserved to party: The marathon world record had been stuck at 2:06:50 since 1988, after creeping down an average of just five seconds a year since the late ’60s. The wafer-thin Brazilian had shattered the mark…
It has been a little while since I took a detailed look at the Dow, the fun and games of the past few days have motivated me put down some observations. However, a general disclaimer before I begin. I am short the US markets at present.Note the use of the word at present just because I…
