LATEST BLOGS

How Do You Know?

 I gave a little it talk last night on complexity within markets and the question arose in the chat afterwards as to how do you know when a trader/advisor/etc is starting to panic about the market. I have a short  quick and very complete answer which is based upon my own observation over the past…

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When History and Finance Go Wrong

The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…

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Decision Fatigue

It may seem liberating to live in a land of infinite choices, but research in decision-making suggests otherwise. In a classic study, Stanford researchers set up shop at an upscale grocery store chosen for its “extraordinary selection” of items, including 300 types of jam. One Saturday afternoon, they set up a sampling booth with 24 jams;…

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How To Get Ahead – Fate Or Free Will?

If you’re living in Lebanon you need to know the right people to get ahead, but in Uganda, sheer luck is important. That’s what people in those countries say are the keys to success. A Pew report released Thursday reached the conclusion that people in developing economies are more likely to think the next generation will be…

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What Will It Take to Run A 2-HOUR Marathon?

When Ronaldo da Costa broke the finish-line tape at the 1998 Berlin Marathon, he began dancing a samba. He deserved to party: The marathon world record had been stuck at 2:06:50 since 1988, after creeping down an average of just five seconds a year since the late ’60s. The wafer-thin Brazilian had shattered the mark…

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Dow

It has been a little while since I took a detailed look at the Dow, the fun and games of the past few days have motivated me put down some observations. However, a general disclaimer before I begin. I am short the US markets at present.Note the use of the word at present just because I…

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