There are three types of investors: momentum, valuation and noise. Momentum investors care about trend, valuation investors care about fundamentals and noise investors care about a random assortment of stuff. Many of us are noise investors, even though we wont realise it. Of course, investment approaches do not all neatly fit into such discrete categories.…
Economists love to tell each other stories about perverse incentives. The “cobra effect” is a favourite. It describes an attempt by the British Raj to rid Delhi of its cobras by paying a bounty for each cobra skin, thus encouraging a thriving cobra-farming industry. The cobra story is probably an urban myth — or a…
The Holy Grail of trading—the idea that an ideal system exists which delivers consistent results without risk—is a seductive but dangerous illusion. In reality, all trading strategies involve trade-offs between risk, reward, and probability.
In trading, a prevalent cognitive bias known as the arrival fallacy often distorts motivation and impairs ability. Coined by psychologist Tal Ben-Shahar, the arrival fallacy describes the flawed assumption that achieving a specific goal—such as reaching a monetary milestone, becoming a full-time trader, or hitting a percentage return target—will deliver long-term contentment. In reality, the…
In markets, it’s not just the move—it’s the surprise. Last night, the copper market delivered a textbook case of expectation mismatch. After weeks of pricing in broad-based tariffs on refined copper, the Trump administration announced that semi-finished goods like wires and pipes would face 50% tariffs. Refined copper, scrap, and cathodes were exempted. The Aftermath:…
Very is the simple answer. Jessie Livermore’s trading career remains one of the most legendary — and cautionary — tales in trading history. To get a sense of his achievement, I have taken a table (which you can click on) that has been floating around the internet and tidied it up by removing multiple entries…
If I am asked why traders fail, the answer often shocks people. They fail because they want to. Consciously, traders often demonstrate all the outward signs of wanting to be profitable; they go through the motions of designing a robust system, learning about risk management, and even pay lip service to the importance of psychology.…
The title of this piece is derived from an article in the AFR, which examines what I consider to be a somewhat baffling decision by a reasonably sized local fund to continue shorting CBA despite its strong price growth. The decision by Sage Capital to continue shorting Commonwealth Bank (CBA), despite a +36% rally and…
In the world of trading, complexity is often mistaken for sophistication. Charts littered with oscillators, trend lines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, and exotic indicators can give the illusion of control. But beneath that clutter lies a painful truth: no indicator can tell you what will happen next. They tell you what has already happened—filtered, lagged,…
Australia’s ASX 200 has hit a fresh record high—but beneath the headline lies a more complex story. In this video, I break down the internal dynamics of the market, uncovering how mid-caps and small caps are leading the charge while miners lag. We compare global equity markets, analyse the strongest YTD commodities like gold and…
There is an old maxim in trading: if it feels comfortable, then you are probably doing it wrong. Dollar Cost Averaging is one such strategy – it is designed to make you feel better, not make you more profitable. For some odd reason, this topic has been bombarding my inbox for the past week. I…
John John Florence is a three-time World Surf League Champion and one of the most naturally gifted surfers of his generation. This conversation explores John John’s decision to step away from competition at his peak. We discuss his evolution from forcing outcomes to allowing flow, why mastery begins with surrendering control, and transforming pressure into…
That’s impossible. I can’t do that.” We’ve all said it at some point in our lives. Most commonly, we’re starting a fresh endeavour, looking at what it’s going to take, and the task before us seems insurmountable. We’re the primary school students staring at the blank screen, unsure how in the world we’ll get to…
Why Watching the Charts All Day Can Hurt Your Trading One of the most common mistakes novice traders make is assuming that profit comes solely from the time spent on the screen. The more you watch, the more you learn. The more you stare at the chart, the more trades you’ll find. Unfortunately, this is…
Is a new commodities supercycle emerging? This video offers a macro-level analysis of the long-term structural forces shaping commodity markets, providing critical insights for portfolio managers, allocators, and institutional investors seeking inflation protection and uncorrelated returns. We examine the evolving dynamics behind supply constraints, policy shifts, and multi-decade investment cycles impacting energy, metals, and agriculture. ? What…
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